Backcountry Pilot • Boiling a frog...

Boiling a frog...

Near misses, close calls, and lessons learned the hard way. Share with others so that they might avoid the same mistakes.
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Boiling a frog...

I wrote this several years ago. I came across it on my computer this morning and thought it was relevant given that we're at that point in the summer where smoke from fires is forcing decisions.
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I don't have that many "never again" or "live to tell" stories, as I tend to be pretty conservative with my flying. This one though is something I'll never forget, and I often tell this story around the campfire when stupid pilot tricks are being discussed. Now that the summer fire season is upon us, I thought I'd share this phenomenon for the greener pilots.

Smoke can be more dangerous than clouds as inadvertent IMC for VFR pilots because it's deceptive, and visibility degrades so gradually that there's rarely an "oh shit" moment until it's really serious.

Years ago, coming home to Oregon from Idaho in my sparsely equipped 60 year old Cessna, I was about 100 miles out from my destination when I could make out a massive wall of...something on the horizon. As the miles ticked away, things seemed to get hazier and hazier. Turns out, some forest fires to the SW (well beyond my destination) were putting out a fair amount of smoke that was being blown into my home area by winds.

The ASOS at my home field (actually located on a nearby mountain) was reporting IFR (1.7 mi viz) according to the XM Wx on my Garmin 496, but it didn't seem that bad where I was; hazy and diminished viz for sure but I could still see ahead fairly well so I kept flying on, expecting the observation to be inaccurate, trusting more in my own eyes on my flight path ahead.

Only when I found myself flying by looking down at the ground for reference rather than ahead did I realize that I was in a situation. I was in IMC and it had taken a long time to determine it. That's why smoke can be so deceptive: unlike a big white cloud or fog or ceiling, it's thinner at the outskirts and more dense the closer you get to the source, so the diminishing viz can lure you in with hopes that it's not getting any worse than it currently is. You get used to it quickly but subconsciously start tuning into other visual references besides the horizon. It's like the old parable: if you put a frog in hot water, he'll jump right out, but if you put him in cool water and gradually turn up the temperature, he won't notice the danger and and will be boiled alive.

The thing that really made me 180 out (on instruments) to the better viz I knew was behind me was the sudden realization that any other traffic that might be converging on my destination in these same conditions would have just as poor visibility, we would never see each other. I probably would have flown on because I knew the terrain and the area, but traffic would have been impossible to spot. Looking back I realized it was no better than any other types of IMC and I was being the fool. Luckily, the exit is right behind you, and unlike actual IMC from clouds, it rarely closes in behind unless the wind shifts dramatically.

TL;DR Smoke can lure you into entering what is effectively IMC but it's difficult to identify it as such because it degrades too gradually to realize the danger until it's a serious low-visibility situation.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Thank you for the timely reminder and caution.

I'm headed to central California soon and the wildfire smoke up here has been bad, but trending towards improvement/stable. Some days have beel LIFR! The air is gross.

There are about 5-6 TFR's for wildfires on my route of flight but I have plans and backup plans for every segment of the trip.

I told my lady friend that I guarantee a safe landing, I just can't say if it will be the same place we planned for...
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Re: Boiling a frog...

It's actually very similar to whiteout conditions, and you can find yourself in a big heap of trouble dealing with optical illusions giving you false horizons.

And like whiteout conditions, at some point you CAN NOT fly it VFR, and you'll have to go on the gauges, even though you may have "legal" VFR visibility.

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Re: Boiling a frog...

I noticed our local airport went IFR in smoke yesterday, not something I see very often.

I had a very similar experience, Zane:

I was flying from Idaho to Southern California and planned to leave at the crack of dawn as you tend to do for those longer VFR cross countries. Was paying really close attention to the weather and fire situation the night before the trip and went to bed very comfortable with the knowledge that a moderate cold front would pass through overnight with perfect flying weather forecasted for the next morning.

In the morning, I got up in the dark, prepped the plane, and my wife and I blasted out at first light in perfect conditions. We flew for about 20-30 minutes and in the dusky morning light the visibility started to get worse and suddenly I was IMC in smoke. I had picked up flight following with Salt Lake Center and basically told them what was going on and asked them if there were any known fires and if they could vector me out of the smoke (looking back, I probably should have attempted to pick an IFR clearance - I am IFR rated - but dealing with the issue at hand seemed more important). Right at that moment a Mooney who was traveling a similar route but about 20 miles to my west came on frequency and reported fires burning right below him. The wind was from the west, so presumably that fire was producing the smoke that I was flying through. Center turned me about 120 degrees to the right and within minutes I was back in the clear, with the fires that the Mooney had reported in sight, and we continued to weave our way through smoke and fires to the south.

What had happened was that the cold front moving through overnight came with lightning and set huge portions of Nevada on fire. We had gone out so early in the morning that nothing had been reported so there were no TFRs in the system and the fires hadn't gotten to inciweb or anything yet. Center didn't even know about them, and it wasn't really until the three of use (me, the mooney, and SLC) were able to "chat" that we were really able to piece together what was happening.

Lesson learned? Just because there aren't any fires reported, doesn't mean there aren't any fires and picking up changes in visibility is way harder in dusky light.

I'll see if I can post some pictures...

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Re: Boiling a frog...

VFR visibility doesn't, in any way shape or form, mean that you'll be able to discern a horizon.

Smoke is bad for that...very easy to have legal VFR, and be able to see the ground if you look straight down, but not have any horizon at all.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Great discussion.

As pilots we have to be constantly on guard against the siren song of "there" or "home," calling us to launch into or continue into conditions we'd normally never decide to fly in. Get-there-itis is almost a cliche now, but that's because it's a very real thing. Combined with the normal human propensity for denial of info that contradicts our current direction, we have the tendency to plow ahead. I've been there more than once, squinting at the "horizon," trying to figure out "a way" before finally getting smart and turning around or landing. Smoke is especially sneaky.

After a recent discussion of a fatal get-there-itis related accident I started thinking about pilots I've personally met who subsequently died in avoidable accidents that were basically get-there-itis. I was horrified how many I started to be able to tally up without much searching of my memory. I stopped as the numbers started adding up, but could have kept on going.

One thought experiment I use to keep myself honest on cross-countries is: "would I drive to the airport to go flying in this?" when looking at the weather ahead. Seems to help keep me honest. The older I get, the more of a fair weather pilot I become, and I'm OK with that.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Hammer wrote:VFR visibility doesn't, in any way shape or form, mean that you'll be able to discern a horizon.

Smoke is bad for that...very easy to have legal VFR, and be able to see the ground if you look straight down, but not have any horizon at all.


"PVFR" as MTV calls it...

https://backcountrypilot.org/features/c ... ngle-pilot
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Scary stuff.

I am taking all this to heart for my trip tomorrow.

It's a big sky with alternative airports so hopefully be able to work with the situation.

Odd the smoke is not showing up on satellite images on Foreflight. I suspect this is the difference between in flight angle visibility and perpendicular visibility such as we see the ceiling or a satellite looks straight down.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Good topic, and timely.
GumpAir wrote:It's actually very similar to whiteout conditions, and you can find yourself in a big heap of trouble dealing with optical illusions giving you false horizons.

And like whiteout conditions, at some point you CAN NOT fly it VFR, and you'll have to go on the gauges, even though you may have "legal" VFR visibility.

Gump

We found ourselves in these conditions the other day. Still VFR, but time to start paying attention to the attitude indicator because the visible horizon was gone. Just to remind us that Murphy's law is alive and well, that's when the vacuum light came on and the AI went tits up. No worries, we just pulled up the synthetic vision on the iPad/Stratus...only to find that it was unresponsive. Took what could have been several precious minutes to get it re-calibrated and working again. While the whole episode never turned ugly, it was a good lesson. Be careful out there, and don't get complacent. Its much easier to turn around / stay above it / go around it than fight your way out of it when it turns bad.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Just to remind us that Murphy's law is alive and well, that's when the vacuum light came on and the AI went tits up.



Get proficient at needle-ball-airspeed too!!!!! Hint, hint 8) 8) 8)

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Re: Boiling a frog...

Something I think about is that where there's smoke there's often air tankers. Lots of tanker bases on the east side of OR, WA, and throughout ID. I flew home a couple of days ago fairly early in the morning with 3-5 miles starting out, but knowing it got better to the north. Sun angle is a big deal in smoke, even early afternoon sun can be low enough that westerly courses have 2 miles less vis than the other quadrants.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Been flying all week in heavy smoke, visibility reported at 2 miles here and there, maybe, maybe less. IFR background and good equipment helps - like 4 gps on board, G5. Following a meandering highway I almost locked horns with an S-64 going the other way (friendly drawl: we see y'all). Punching out over water takes a pause: bug altitude, bug heading, check an ATIS or a METAR on the other side to make sure it isn't a wasted trip, get that scan back up to speed, and trim accurately. Not fun flying, but you can still get around.

Good advice from Hammer, CFOT and papernscissors. You can see the ground/water straight down, but the rest is like a milk bottle. In mountains I keep one display on terrain and make sure I can always see the next ridge or flank outline.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

I vote with Gump

Needle - Ball - Airspeed + light fingertip touch.

Easy for me to say - I learned it hat way - and stayed that way.

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Re: Boiling a frog...

VFR into smoke...

People that live in the PNW tend to get familiarized with it due to the fire season, and people in the SW get used to it from the stubble or bemuda burning.... Visitors? they frequently get the unpleasant surprise. Throw in night and take away city lights and it quickly turns into a handful.

Ya, it isn't like VFR into clouds, but it is a lot like VFR into Radiation fog, which is sooo common in the midwestern corn states. You will rarely see the local seasoned ag guys go running out with the first load at first light if the temp spread isn't more than a few degrees, while al the drier country visitors are chomping at the bit, because just as soon as that ball of fire gets an inch or two above the horizon that beautiful clear blue bird morning turns to soup... an hour later as the sun gets just a bit taller it all melts away ;-)

Living near larger dairies or feed lots that 'cheat' on dust control during feedings is equally similar. The micro fine dust wafts into clouds that can extend many miles downwind.
Working till dawn in the valleys east of Yuma in the early spring when the Gila may be running and the winters bermuda is getting burned down, will make you proficient in recognizing and dealing with all three :evil:

Take care, Rob
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Living in the PNW I am used to summer fires and flying with what seems like no forward vis.

I really like the new Garmin ADS-B that shows most of the traffic around (not all). As long as I can see the ground or sky I don't mind flying in smoke.

I got my instrument ticket some years ago and that really helps. I don't like IFR in my plane. No auto pilot. I found out real quick, for me, single pilot IFR is work, no fun. I fly for fun.

I heard a story about a guy who wanted to fly high enough to go over a fire TFR (big TFR) There was ground a sky reference most of the time. At one point the smoke got so bad that it was total IFR, no sky, no ground, all white. It was a long 5-8 minutes I heard. He had his wife with him, and she wasn't amused one bit!! I heard the guy said he wouldn't try that again.[-X

Cheers...Rob
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Re: Boiling a frog...

Watch out when the sun goes over the horizon. It will go from bad to worse. In that case you don't really have 30 minutes more of daylight VFR. It beomes instant IFR
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Re: Boiling a frog...

And, be careful trying to climb on top of smoke. It is VERY deceptive. I've looked up at blue sky while in poor visibility, and thought I'd just climb up into that blue sky. Once, I climbed all the way to 12,500 (from near sea level) and still couldn't see shit.....like no ground contact, and nothing to see within the available visibility.

That's time (actually, past time) to file IFR, and you'd best be ready for that task.

In 1988, Yellowstone Park burned almost 800,000 acres. The area I worked burned over 1.2 million acres before the Yellowstone fires started. I flew in that crap most days......lovely.

And, remember, If you DO get up there after (or before) filing IFR, and you still can't see, there MAY be thunderstorms out there......that you can't see....
One summer, we had a lot of smoke from distant fires, and we hadn't had a thunderstorm in weeks. Further, the interior of Alaska almost never has morning thunderstorms. So, one morning, I filed IFR northbound, to VFR conditions. I launched out of FAI on an IFR release, and was climbing through 6000 when FAI Departure asked me if I was aware of the thunderstorms in the vicinity. Long pause, then: "Uh, nope, are there any ahead of me?". "My radar only reaches about 40 north, but I'm painting one cell at your 12 o'clock and seven miles."

"Okay, can I amend my IFR clearance for a 180 and return to FAI?".

This was back before XM weather in the cockpit, but I later learned to study the TIME HACK on XM and any other weather imagery (like ADS-B), because sometime you can be looking at a pretty old image and not realize it.

Smoke, gotta love it. Not.

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Re: Boiling a frog...

CFOT wrote:Good topic, and timely.
GumpAir wrote:It's actually very similar to whiteout conditions, and you can find yourself in a big heap of trouble dealing with optical illusions giving you false horizons.

And like whiteout conditions, at some point you CAN NOT fly it VFR, and you'll have to go on the gauges, even though you may have "legal" VFR visibility.

Gump

We found ourselves in these conditions the other day. Still VFR, but time to start paying attention to the attitude indicator because the visible horizon was gone. Just to remind us that Murphy's law is alive and well, that's when the vacuum light came on and the AI went tits up. No worries, we just pulled up the synthetic vision on the iPad/Stratus...only to find that it was unresponsive. Took what could have been several precious minutes to get it re-calibrated and working again. While the whole episode never turned ugly, it was a good lesson. Be careful out there, and don't get complacent. Its much easier to turn around / stay above it / go around it than fight your way out of it when it turns bad.
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I had several IFR experiences to and from OSH this year, and I must say that having the Quattro in lieu of a vacuum driven AI is comforting! I still put my iPhone on the panel connected to the iPad/Stratus via the Horizon app as a backup AI, but it's a whole lot less necessary. I don't fly in actual IMC all that often, relying instead on periodic IPCs to stay current--it seems as if for the last several years, the most actual IMC has been on the OSH excursion, although I typically file IFR for most longer cross countries. I haven't flown in smoky areas in many years, although as I recall, it's not a whole lot different from high humidity Midwest flying, which can go from VFR to hazy marginal VFR to IFR in fairly short order.

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Re: Boiling a frog...

Well, we scrubbed the flight.

We took off with the plan all loaded ready to go to Klamath Falls and Crater Lake, and then continue down into south central California.

The visibility and ceiling at the airport was reported fine, but in-flight visibility was horrible. At 4000 feet, there was no discernible horizon, and all I could see was the terrain below me.

It occurred to me that if there was traffic or weather ahead of me, I wouldn't of been able to see it.

I notified air traffic control that I was turning back and heading to Richland.

I promised my friend that we would have a safe landing, but I did not promise her wear. That is my policy.

So, we had a major change in plans. Transfer the stuff from the airplane to the Mercedes, and drove down to Crater Lake

The weather there was very iffy. Intermittent thunderstorms, some with hell, and many times that it would not of been good flying for crossing the mountains. I think we made a good decision.

God has blessed our trip regardless, we've been having a wonderful time, and I'm also discovering what a pleasure it is to drive my new car long distance.

Have a great day gentlemen, and thank you for all the wise advice that I got from this thread. It makes me sincerely hope that many people that are on our forum, or look here learn from us and benefit from these experiences.
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Re: Boiling a frog...

That was a refreshing read after all the testosterone filled posts about people being able to fly like they're competing in an extreme sport, 'just cause I can'.

Far more talent , skill, and intelligence in that flight =D> IMHO.

Take care, Rob
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