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El Nino Makes a Comeback

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El Nino Makes a Comeback

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Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported today that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. "Currently, weak El Niño conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Niño forecaster.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm
Strata Rocketeer offline
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Jr.CubBuilder wrote:Awww heck, I guess that means I'll have to spend more time flying my plane than riding the old snowmobile 8)


Doesn't El Nino bring with it greater moisture and more precip? What does it mean for snowfall? More precip, but higher winter temps? I love flying, but I also love POWDER. I pulled this off a skiing website forum that I frequent:

"An important conclusion from all of this data is to largely refute the common misconception among Pacific Northwest skiers that El Niño seasons are always terrible for snowfall in the Cascades. El Niño certainly does produce warmer than normal temperatures in the Northwest. However, El Niño seasons typically do have adequate precipitation, resulting in winter rainfall but also adequate snowfall, especially at higher elevations which are most important for spring/summer skiing and ski mountaineering.

The strong El Niño average snowfalls of 330-400" at the major WA Cascade Passes and 600" at Paradise are certainly not bad at all, most other regions of the country only dream of such snowfall amounts. And the southern end of the Cascade Range does very well during El Niño seasons, with spring snowdepths averaging 20% above normal on Lassen and nearly 40% above normal on Shasta.

The very worst snowfall seasons in the Cascade range, the real disasters, occur during severe drought years which are not well correlated with El Niño. The five worst Cascade snow seasons overall since 1950 have been 1962-63, 1976-77, 1980-81, 1991-92, and 2000-2001, of which only one is strong El Niño, one is weak El Niño, one is neutral, and two are weak La Niña. El Niño seasons are rarely disastrous for snowfall in the Cascades, but they are usually somewhat below normal in Washington and Oregon while averaging slightly above normal at higher elevations in British Columbia and much above normal in California.

The correlation between ENSO and snowfall is much stronger in the opposite La Niña phase, and strong La Niña seasons are almost always above normal throughout the entire Cascade Range, especially so in the northern two-thirds of the range. The record-high snowfall and snowdepth amounts at most locations in the Cascades of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia were set during strong La Niña seasons, while in the California Cascades they were set during strong El Niño seasons."
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The Pacific northwest usually sees warmer temps and average to slightly below average precip. (except for the Oregon coast) during El Nino years as illustrated by this chart. Should be a damn sight better than the soaking you got last winter, Jr.
Strata Rocketeer offline
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We had one of the best snow years in the last 6-8 years last year (how many times can you say year in one sentence)

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Well, I guess that cinches my decision about bringing my Maule to work in the Bay area this fall and winter. Hangar or covers, one way or the other. One weekend in Baja, one weekend at Tahoe, one weekend in Joseph, and one weekend home. (If a month had more weekends I could have used more in one sentence) Does El Nino mean SoCal has two seasons...Fire and Water?
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You snowmachine guys.... who wants to haul me to the top of some Cascade ridges/peaks this winter so I can ski down???
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If you can hang on I'll take you for a ride... :twisted:
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Hottshot wrote:If you can hang on I'll take you for a ride... :twisted:


You're on! We need to rig up a ski carrier.

Oh maybe you thought I was talking about being towed up while skiing, like with a waterski rope? Noooo sir! :D

Maybe you can mount a sissy bar on that thing for me. ;)
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Jr.CubBuilder wrote:One word. Snowboard!
\:D/



Gunna have to try that someday
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Jr.CubBuilder wrote:One word. Snowboard!


My skis are so wide, they are like having a snowboard on each foot.
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