propeller26 wrote:We are hoping to fly up from Northern California on Wednesday and I would like to get some local information. The weather is forecast for rain, but is it likely to be VFR? I would go IFR, but I don’t tend to with the family onboard. Just wondering what the local weather patterns present and if VFR is possible with the current forecast. I am very familiar up to Medford, but not beyond that.

Jeff

. The bottom line is we`ll have a dirty ridge over our area Wednesday
through Wednesday night with a few weak shortwaves riding along it
during this time. So while a few light showers could not be ruled
out Wednesday and Thursday, the best chance will be over the
northern part of our forecast area. Even then I`m not convinced
we`ll get anything. This is because model soundings show a very
persistent dry layer below 850 mb, so what precipitation does occur
will likely be evaporating as it falls. Also on Wednesday, there is
good agreement 500mb heights will increase some as weak ridging
moves overhead, and should be enough to keep the best chance of
precip to the north.

The floodgates will begin to open up on Thursday as the first in a
series of front will move closer to our area. The general consensus
is for moderate to heavy rain to arrive at the coast late Thursday
morning, then move inland Thursday afternoon. The heaviest rainfall
Thursday will be along the coast and coastal mountains.

Gusty winds are also expected Thursday with the main focus along the
coast Thursday morning and Shasta Valley, then east of the Cascades
Thursday afternoon. At this time it does not look like they will
reach high wind criteria at the coast, but they could reach advisory
level in the Shasta Valley near Weed. -Petrucelli