Zane,

I beg to differ with you. I have lost a number of good friends in aircraft accidents, and in most of those incidents there were others aboard. Sometimes I knew everyone aboard.

One thing I learned a long time ago is that you DO NOT critique an aviation accident until ALL the dust has settled. And, in many cases, even then, we really don't know what happened, and never well. In the meantime, speculation runs rampant in the pilot population, and oftentimes the folks circulating this speculation fail to recognize that the survivors/dependants of the deceased/injured are out there, hearing/reading these things. Consider how you'd feel if a close family member were involved in such a situation, and someone on this forum posted some speculative BS about how the pilot screwed up. I've seen that happen, and had to try to explain to the widow why this bullshit was being circulated by people who had NO knowledge at all of what they spoke.

So, call me hypersensitive if you like, but I've just seen too much speculative "this is exactly what happened" bullshit over the years spewed forth by "experts", not only in the media, but ESPECIALLY in the pilot population. It's the "vulture" syndrome, I guess.

It has been my experience that even the NTSB gets it wrong fairly frequently when it comes to general aviation aircraft.

So, to me, any "expert" who pontificates on an aircraft accident before all the evidence is in, and complete is a bit premature. I toned that down for ya, by the way.

Your point is valid in that we SHOULD be able to learn from aircraft accidents. The question is, do we actually learn anything from the often wild speculation that goes on immediately after an accident?

And, in fact, if the whole thing really was a total dumb shit move, it should be pretty apparent to anyone reading about it, and probably offers it's "lessons" without much "interpretation".

Otherwise, everyone involved in one of these things has family and friends, and imagine yourself reading the speculation about your loved one's accident on this forum or others.

We should be able to learn from accidents, no doubt. The fact of the matter is, however, that the learning can take place down the road a piece, once the investigation is complete, and the true experts have spoken.

MTV

Mike, I wasn't defending the practice of speculation. I agree with you, it's fruitless.

I was addressing the romanticized notion of screwing up and getting lucky, which goes way beyond this accident.

I beg to differ with you. I have lost a number of good friends in aircraft accidents, and in most of those incidents there were others aboard. Sometimes I knew everyone aboard.

One thing I learned a long time ago is that you DO NOT critique an aviation accident until ALL the dust has settled. And, in many cases, even then, we really don't know what happened, and never well. In the meantime, speculation runs rampant in the pilot population, and oftentimes the folks circulating this speculation fail to recognize that the survivors/dependants of the deceased/injured are out there, hearing/reading these things. Consider how you'd feel if a close family member were involved in such a situation, and someone on this forum posted some speculative BS about how the pilot screwed up. I've seen that happen, and had to try to explain to the widow why this bullshit was being circulated by people who had NO knowledge at all of what they spoke.

So, call me hypersensitive if you like, but I've just seen too much speculative "this is exactly what happened" bullshit over the years spewed forth by "experts", not only in the media, but ESPECIALLY in the pilot population. It's the "vulture" syndrome, I guess.

It has been my experience that even the NTSB gets it wrong fairly frequently when it comes to general aviation aircraft.

So, to me, any "expert" who pontificates on an aircraft accident before all the evidence is in, and complete is a bit premature. I toned that down for ya, by the way.

Your point is valid in that we SHOULD be able to learn from aircraft accidents. The question is, do we actually learn anything from the often wild speculation that goes on immediately after an accident?

And, in fact, if the whole thing really was a total dumb shit move, it should be pretty apparent to anyone reading about it, and probably offers it's "lessons" without much "interpretation".

Otherwise, everyone involved in one of these things has family and friends, and imagine yourself reading the speculation about your loved one's accident on this forum or others.

We should be able to learn from accidents, no doubt. The fact of the matter is, however, that the learning can take place down the road a piece, once the investigation is complete, and the true experts have spoken.

MTV

Sorry, Mike, I guess you'll not only have to have to cut us chumps slack for being behind the intelligence power curve, but also for being insensitive clods, too.
Damn. Didn't really mean to be this way-I guess we (I) have to try harder.....

lc

I'm all for withholding judgment until all of the evidence is in. Where I draw the line is on saying that someone "was a great pilot" or "was a really careful pilot" if the bottom line is that they messed up on their last flight and did harm to themselves or someone else. In that case, it just ain't true. Every flight is the final exam. I'm only as good as my last flight, and every flight is a new flight. I also prefer Rod Machado's mantra "If I do everything right, it will not happen to me," to the fatalistic "it could happen to anyone." And I try not to flatter myself into thinking that my opinion matters to anyone other than me.

CAVU