What are some good tools/techniques for predicting visibility due to smoke?

I've got a list of grass and gravel I want to fly to and camp on this summer in the North East. One aspect of Weather planning that I learned nothing about during flight training was smoke. I'm a VFR pilot flying a VFR equipped aircraft. We don't often get wildfire smoke here in New England but it sounds like it might be something we get used to this summer. Even farting around locally though smoky 4 mile visibility is.... uncomfortable.

I've read through Zane's excellent knowledge base article https://backcountrypilot.org/knowledge-base/pilots/187-hazards-of-wildfire-smoke#h8-resources but wondered if there were any improved forecasting tools available now (5 years later).

I've been watching https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/ but the forecast is limited to 48 hours.

Thanks!

Hayden

Getting more than 48 hours on reliable smoke conditions is nigh onto impossible. Slight changes in the wind can make a big difference in smoke density in a given area. That means you can have good conditions for getting where you're going, but make get stuck later by poor visibility due to smoke. Even worse would be getting stuck with a fire coming your way if the wind shifts. If fires are burning in an area I'd like to go, I just don't go there. As far as smoke from distant fires, I look at longer range wind projections. You can a good idea on probable wind strength and direction from a variety of sources 7 days in advance. Be aware that the wind direction often changes with altitude, so don't just check the surface wind predictions, be sure to look at wind strength and direction at various altitudes. If the fires are far away and the wind from the surface to over 9,000' is blowing toward the fires from where I want to be for the next week, I'll consider going. If the predictions are mixed, I make other plans. It looks like this is going to be a bad year for fires and smoke as we shift back into an el Nino weather pattern.

Hayden, check products on the NOAA site.

This https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ for example.

The HRRR is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecast model. It runs every hour (i.e., Rapid Refresh) and they have a version that forecasts smoke.

Select the "Vertically Integrated Smoke" row and click on the check mark for Loop.

I haven't really played with it so I can't comment on its use for flight planning.

IIRC NOAA also runs a site which analyses and predicts transport of volcanic ash, where one can choose different altitudes.
Might be useful for smoke, as well.

Wolf

140eagles wrote:This https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

Wolf: Thanks for this. This website is really interesting and will take some time to figure out all it has to offer.

I find smoke is like snow, unpredictable. VFR limits are 3 miles in controlled airspace, 1 mile in uncontrolled. That's not much if you don't have your ducks lined up, don't have a panel, don't have IFR flying experience.

Was flying through Oregon enroute California in my Pitts, no compass, before gps, in smoke, at 10k, following I5. Near Medford I was losing ground reference and dropped down to regain it. Ended up between the freeway lanes at 200' with about 1/2 mile viz. Called Medford tower to let them know I was going to be low-level through their zone. They said "were you going?", I said "I'm following I5, I'm out of gas, going to Ashland", to which they replied "Ashland is 1/8 obscured in smoke, tell us a landmark you see along I5". "I see a large apartment building on a low hill on the left side". "Dang, boy, you're already a couple miles south of the airport, do a 180 and come north, report a large intersection with a Denny's on the right". I called the intersection and he said "standby a few seconds, on my call turn right 90 degrees to the freeway, you'll cross two runways, you're cleared to land on any of them". Relief gave way to impatience and a couple hours later, with a full tank of gas, I called them for a special to get out. "Cleared takeoff, turn south along the freeway, good luck" - those controllers had hearts of gold.

Here's a pic of "Smokey the Bear" twerking on our fire base (no offence to the OP)

Karmutzen wrote:"I see a large apartment building on a low hill on the left side"

Rogue Valley Manor I'm betting! Haha. The old folks' home next to the freeway.