It is hard to do the math on this question with NTSB and FAA findings of probable cause. While Dan Gryder's Probable Cause videos are less sanctioned, they are timely and logical. From my experience as an instructor since 1974 and from his and my observations, I find that pilots with confidence have more incidents and accidents while pilots with extensive personal limitations have more fatalities. To be fair we have to examine the reasons for personal limitations. Are they actually personal or are they rather institutional? We are told that the ACS mandated competency of a PPL is just a licence to learn. Sort of like sign a non-disclosure document with the FAA and sort it out. The Flight Review looks like concurrent training but actually is meant to be just repetition of admitted (licence to learn) incompetent training. Nor is a couple extra maneuvers and less +or- envelope on airspeed, altitude, and heading in the CPL a paradigm change. Those are just about validating existing techniques. No new techniques nor even improvement on existing technique are often sanctioned. There was slight improvement from PTS to ACS concerning acceleration in ground effect. But only acceleration to Vx or Vy as appropriate. Neither is normally appropriate as far as energy management and safety goes. No paradigm change. So we can't fault the PPL or even CPL with the insufficient training. They have good reason for institutional limitations leading to lack of confidence. They are saddled with limitations. What is your experience with this repetitive loop?
Is change or progress or fewer fatalities possible with the current paradigm? If it is time for a paradigm change, who can make that happen? If David Soucie is correct that the NTSB and FAA are primarily interested in making those agencies look good and if Dan is correct in his evaluation of those agencies as incompetent, instructors are in a moral dilemma about how to best serve the customers interest. Do we teach the art of flying so a to help them become confident pilots or do we teach V-speeds necessary to pass the flight test or both? Can instructors make a paradigm change? For all pilots is AOPA the solution? We are a democracy and therefore should support the government. But can we expect more attention to safety at our low level rather than just posturing? Video is helping us see ourselves both currently and historically more accurately. Can it help with this safety problem, fatalities that is? Can we expect an agency paradigm change from fault finding to actually self evaluation in safety?
Mastery education has as much to do with art as with science. What V-speed is mastery. Vx or Vy as appropriate are just numbers. They express laboratory physics, not the natural world where things change and humans delay. Are they the appropriate numbers for pitch attitude with a three second delay after engine failure? More artistic numbers like DMMS take human error into consideration. Design safety features like dynamic neutral stability take human error into consideration. And we old guys have to admit that computers take human error into consideration, except for the programmer. The only thing in ACS that is artistic, and not digital, is the DPE's evaluation that, "the outcome of the maneuver was never in doubt." Butt covering idiots, the maneuver is unsafe. It is unfair to make the DPE judge an applicant on how he performs an unsafe maneuver based on assigned numbers with the outcome never in doubt. How, honestly how can we not have pilots with low confidence, even neurotic? Personal limitations is a cheap institutional ass cover job.



