The FAA website has published it's list of higher learnin' skools that can be used to waive the 1500 hour ATP requirement.

http://www.faa.gov/pilots/training/atp/ ... y_List.pdf

good to know that my education choice in the 90's will still allow me to go to the regionals, oh wait I don't think I ever want to do that.

You mean you don't want to trade away your life for a job that pays less than minimum wage, along with all of the responsibility of driving a multi-million dollar flying bus full of ungrateful people who think you are Glenn Quagmire?

gig-a-di-gig

The next 5-10 years is going to be really interesting in this industry. Even before this limit on getting an ATP, demand domestically, let alone worldwide is going to drastically outpace supply. Kind of a perfect storm has been created and after the majors/legacy carriers drain the regionals and corporate flight departments of those wanting to move on, it will leave them in a serious pinch. Overall it should be good for the pilots. We are already seeing wages increase with the mergers that have occurred...for the legacy and majors anyway. You'd think there would be some increase for the regionals too...but I personally think you're going to see the regionals change as we know them today and not exist as they currently do by the time it is said and done.

Should be interesting...of course one massive economic upheaval or terrorist attack could change everything in a heartbeat!

Av8r3400 wrote:You mean you don't want to trade away your life for a job that pays less than minimum wage, along with all of the responsibility of driving a multi-million dollar flying bus full of ungrateful people who think you are Glenn Quagmire?

HA, never thought of Gleen Quagmire but thats awesome!

Nope, figured that out in 98 when I graduated from ERAU and went to the corporate world. I did drop out of the corporate world right before 9/11 to go be a CFI, did the cfi thing for a few months and realized its not for me and aviation would not rebound as people thought.

Grassstrippilot wrote:The next 5-10 years is going to be really interesting in this industry. Even before this limit on getting an ATP, demand domestically, let alone worldwide is going to drastically outpace supply. Kind of a perfect storm has been created and after the majors/legacy carriers drain the regionals and corporate flight departments of those wanting to move on, it will leave them in a serious pinch. Overall it should be good for the pilots. We are already seeing wages increase with the mergers that have occurred...for the legacy and majors anyway. You'd think there would be some increase for the regionals too...but I personally think you're going to see the regionals change as we know them today and not exist as they currently do by the time it is said and done.

Should be interesting...of course one massive economic upheaval or terrorist attack could change everything in a heartbeat!

Let's hope so. When I went to ERAU in the 90's the story then was there was going to be a shortage.

I've heard it since I was in high school in the late 80s and early 90s. I think it is finally coming. In 2005 we saw a brief hint of it when places like Mesa started offering hiring bonuses and I had 3 300 hour wonders in my new hire class. Then the economy tanked and the retirement age was raised to 65. That reprieve is just coming to an end and, if you look at the retirements domestically alone for the next 10-15 years, it's well over 10,000 pilots. All we have heard from management over the last year is about pilot retention and making the compensation package solid to try to stem the loss of pilots when the movement starts...as in next year. The result was an offered 20% increase over the next 3 years. If the industry stays somewhat healthy, it has real potential to be pretty lucrative.

I hope so!
I could of been one of those 300 hr wonders at Mesa, even pondered it in 2005 .. bought an outdoor/ski/bike shop in Crested butte instead.

You definitely saved yourself some misery bypassing the Mesa experience!

Seems like as long as people are willing to do it for nothing, the Mesa's of the world will be just fine.

I've always said pilots are at times their own worst enemies. Thing now is, the number of people getting into aviation is down and won't be able to keep up with demand. I don't think that airline subsidized training, like in the 70s, is out of the question. As far as regionals and their future, the day of the 50 seat jet is waning. Everyone is upsizing towards the 90-100 seat jet...more efficient and produce more ASMs. I could see a scenario where the major players have the 100 seaters and the pilots that fly them on their seniority list, thereby ensuring a known pilot quantity for a longer duration. The other side of that coin is that the pilot groups will have more leverage and may want that flying done by their pilots. Leaving a few smaller true regionals flying Dashs and Saabs around on shorter routes/smaller cities.

But then again, Delta did recently give up a large part of their scope language regarding smaller jets. There are no doubt numerous scenarios. One thing for sure, with the rise in pay, the airlines are going are going to have to find the $ somewhere. People may not be able to expect their $69 coast to coast fare anymore. Like I said, it is going to be interesting!

Due to the constant and incompetent interference in the airline industry by the drones in our government, we have become the shadow of Aeroflot.

Absolutely everything in life has gone up in price except what the masses are paying to fly.

As mentioned above, we are truly at a unique period in commercial aviation.

I was fortunate to get hired by the majors at the right time, and four years later was in the left seat of a 727 at the age of 30. Pilots hired just a few years after me however have been depressingly stagnant, and with the age 65 situation, that stagnation has created an even worse environment for seat progression.

As we all retire en mass in the near future, the young whippersnappers that get hired will wonder what all of the old geezers were complaining about. They will probably go from new-hire to left seat of the 777 in about three weeks.

Or their job will become 'redundant' as drones become the new aviators.

I don't discount the drone idea...but i think if/when it shows its face, it will be in the cargo world first. Lots of issues to be resolved before then. As for passenger flights, im more skeptical. That will be a hard sale to the public. Maybe single pilot crews to curb some of the pilot shortage? I dont know. That has limits too. Its going to be interesting.