Backcountry Pilot • Risk Management

Risk Management

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ShamuPilot wrote:I know this is old news and true for most people, but the biggest threat I run into on a daily basis is complacency. It's insidious and something I try to work on everyday.



Amen to that...

Maybe it's why I have ex wives, and only my dog would fly with me, but some things in life require a person, read that pilot, to be very anal.

I survived a whole lotta years and a whole lotta hours flying VFR in weather below IFR minimums with minimal equipment, and not once, never, no no no don't even think about it, had a single accident, incident, or put a ding in an airplane or passenger.

I preflight a certain way, each and every time, and if I get interrupted I start completely over again. I shut doors myself (especially in C206/207s) so I know myself that things are latched. Every village I landed in, I walked around the airplane a certain way before firing up so I didn't run over Eskimo kids, dogs, or four-wheelers that always seem to materialize out of nowhere.

And... Once in the air, even if I have 2000 or 3000 hours in a specific airplane, not type, but that specific airplane, I still don't trust the damn things. Plan B is always locked and loaded, and when my Spidey Sense starts to tingle, it's time to shift gears and do whatever it takes to make things feel normal again.

It's a weird combination. Obsessive-compulsive and at the same time aimed in a general direction going with the flow loose and easy. It's a Zen thing and a life long learning experience, and fun to see other pilots transform from timidly moving the controls to becoming as one with the airplane.

Gump
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RobBurson wrote:a64pilot, I love your last post. Very true indeed. I look forward to meeting you at the Maule fly in. Cheers...Rob

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, see you there. How many BCP people are coming?
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a64 pilot wrote, I'm keeping my fingers crossed, see you there. How many BCP people are coming?
Me too. Looks like some T storms around.

I don't know how many from here are going.

Hello out there, any other Maule drivers coming to Valier? Cheers...Rob
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Hello out there, any other Maule drivers coming to Valier?


The Yellowbelly should be there with the MauleBros. She just finished her day at the Spa after her annual inspection. Bath, massage and bikini wax, down there in the greasy parts.

Image

But first... I wanted to be sure I could PRONOUNCE Valier. I found this, and now... I'm having second thoughts... am I a wuss?? I'm coming anyway, but I'm bringing my Area 51 Tin Foil Hat.

http://www.reptoids.com/Vault/ValierMute.htm
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Where do you people find this stuff? Yellowbelly, you need help. It looks like you even polished the tailwheel cap. Surely you didn't :lol:
Threadjack?
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See ya there Yellowbelly. Rob
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a64pilot wrote:Grass, you may be surprised to know that your Veto power you came up with is officially known as the "most conservative response rule" I.E. whenever there is disagreement between two pilots, you should default to the most conservative response or if you don't, it may not look good to the accident investigation board.


No, I didn't know the specific origin of this rule, but am not surprised to see it's genesis from the military. My initial exposure to this came from 121 flying, as well as articles from flying magazines. It is a good rule to live by. At work, if there is any question as to a clearance, altitude read-back, etc., we ask for clarification so that everyone is on the same page. And when it comes to decision making, the conservative choice is always the better route for the exact reason you mentioned.
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I don't mean to say it came from the military, just that it exists there "officially". I don't think the Army invented risk management either, but they think they did. Most of us use risk management, we just usually call it common sense.
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Re: Risk Management

Thread bump....

This seems like a good time to bring this up again as we head more into the flying seasons and also as a result of recent accidents.

OregonMaule wrote:Brother pilots, I have been reflecting on the sad recent events. My intentions are not to offend anyone, so right now I’ll say sorry. Correct me where I am wrong so we all might learn.

As pilots we accept greater risk than normal people do. We don’t have a death wish, but we are our own worst enemies. IMO this is why most crashes are pilot error.

I have 27 years fighting fires here in Portland, Or. The trainers always talk about complacency. Does it happen, your damn right it does. Flying, you bet it does. If we followed all the feds rules not as many would fly.

Here are some examples I saw at JC. Lets start with myself. Landing at 1 PM in gusty wind, no FSS flight plan. I told my family where I was going but they didn’t expect to see me home till Sunday. Not good. Luckily there was a phone so I call home to check in.

I never saw anyone sumping tanks, although I know someone must have done it. Gas tanks filled and not checked for contaminants. Low powered planes talking off in the afternoon. Take off early morning take off with frost or ice on the wings. Planes flying, that MAYBE shouldn’t have. In the future will I follow all the rules? Probably not. Will I do better? YES! It’s one thing to do this to ourselves, or with another pilot. We know the risk and can elect to go or not. Is it fair to cut corners if our passengers don’t have a clue?

I saw a lot of smart decisions also. Flying and landing early. Light loads. Flying in-groups. Carrying survival equipment. I chose to not fly while at JC because I knew I was in over my head. Thank you guys for all your advice, helping me to become a better pilot. Let’s all be careful when weighing the risk we all take. Fly safe my friends…Rob
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Re: Risk Management

Normally, I review the last flight several hours or days later in my head; sort of a self debrief. Too often, I recognize something I should have performed better at, outright mistakes, lapses in good judgement, or complacency. Perhaps I'm being too self critical, but I don't think so (and in this case that would be a good thing, anyway) and I'd guess I'm probably not alone. Complacency is what scares me the most.

What should I be doing to help myself and others perform better? Primarily this question is aimed at "what can I do from the time I get to the hangar to the time the plane is parked"? Or how do I keep my head where it needs to be before & during each flight.

Certainly, there are things like training, safety seminars, higher ratings, etc that are very valuable and those should be done also, but are outside of this question since they are needed before getting to the hangar.

I've been flying for 20+ years, TT is 1,400+ hours, PPL, SEL.

Thanks in advance,
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Re: Risk Management

Flying piston singles in GA is around six times more lethal per vehicle mile than driving in round numbers. It is sobering.

Around 3/4ths of GA accidents are attributable to "pilot error"...weather, fuel mismanagement, landing and takeoff errors, maneuvering, etc.

Around 20% of GA accidents are mechanical failures. Around a quarter of those are issues attributable to known or recurrent mechanical issues.

If you take away 80% of the first category of causation somehow, and 80% of the known mechanical issue thing, you might be lucky enough to get the overall risk down by around 60%, or around 2.4 times as fatal as driving to a destination.

It's sketchy, but if you need to rationalize further, you could say that the direct distances for an arbitrary flight destination save around 25% on average on vehicle miles. That might bring the risk down to 1.8 times as fatal.

That means doing everything as humanly correct as practical means our passion is roughly twice as fatal as driving.

If the real statistics are used, a pilot has a one in 20 chance of dying in his or her lifetime from an air accident! Even the most cautious ones by the above calculation would have a 1 in 67 chance.

I'm fine with these odds. I just try to do everything I can to make sure my odds are closer to the "careful" category as I can.
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Re: Risk Management

blackrock wrote:Normally, I review the last flight several hours or days later in my head; sort of a self debrief. Too often, I recognize something I should have performed better at, outright mistakes, lapses in good judgement, or complacency. Perhaps I'm being too self critical, but I don't think so (and in this case that would be a good thing, anyway) and I'd guess I'm probably not alone. Complacency is what scares me the most.


I feel the same way, Blackrock. The more time I spend thinking about this, which is a lot since I fly a lot with my family, the more I think complacency in some form is a major factor in almost all aviation accidents. Complacency with the weather situation, the mechanical state of the machine, the amount of fuel, the pilot's level of proficiency, etc.

I'm naturally predisposed to cowardice, which is probably somewhat helpful, but I still catch myself sometimes almost doing something stupid. I think the most important thing is to pause every now and then and think about what you're doing, trying to assess if you're being too complacent, if there are too many distractions, etc. I guess I try to prep myself for a mental "go around" at the major decision points.

In some ways, the process of risk management is one of the more rewarding facets of aviation for me.
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Re: Risk Management

From my own hard earned (i.e., thick skulled) experience, I have learned to recognize one additional rule: Deal with things as they are, in real time--not as you think they should be, or as they have always been in the past, or as you wish they were.

Hypothetical: A pilot flies a plane over and over again, with very consistent results, getting better and better at handling the plane and more comfortable (complacent) as a result. Those consistent results and that comfort level embolden the pilot. Pilot flies the plane closer to the edge, assuming the prior consistent results will continue to apply under more extreme circumstances. When plane fails to replicate prior results, (whether due to more extreme circumstances, mechanical problem, bad day for the pilot, etc.), pilot stupidly convinces himself that everything is going to turn out like it always has before, rather than processing the new information in real time and making different decision as a result.

To me, complacency is another term for assuming everything is going to turn out like it has before, rather than forcing yourself to collect, and process, information in real time, every time. This applies to wx, mechanical, external conditions (soft field, cross wind, animals on strip, flying late in the day, sumping fuel, weight and loading, etc.) and virtually every other dynamic that makes the difference between a good day and a very bad day in the plane.

Every time I take off now, I'm asking myself in real time, "Is this plane going to take off this time?" Doesn't matter how many times it has taken off just fine in the past, each takeoff roll should be, and is, its own decision making universe based on all the factors present only at that moment. What is the old saying? You can never step in the same river twice...

This is probably all self-evident, but it wasn't self-evident enough to this knucklehead so I've had to learn it the hard way instead. I try to remind myself of those hard lessons every time I get in the plane--it's a lot cheaper that way. :oops:
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Re: Risk Management

Safety is something we all know, but need to be reminded of before its too late. I have found myself in a rush and hurry and that is when the mistakes happen. These are the moments when I take a small time out with myself and focus so I can hurry up and slow down. Before I try something a little more adventurous with my airplane I like to ask myself this, "Are you ready to answer the question. What the HELL were you thinking?" This talks me out more than in.
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Re: Risk Management

Ranch Pilot
I just started reading DEEP SURVIVAL, There is a whole Chapter devoted to what you just said in your post.
I mean I just finished reading it this morning!!
GT
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Re: Risk Management

M6RV6 wrote:Ranch Pilot
I just started reading DEEP SURVIVAL, There is a whole Chapter devoted to what you just said in your post.
I mean I just finished reading it this morning!!
GT


GREAT book, I would highly recommend it to anyone. Gonzales does a wonderful job keeping the read informative and entertaining. Makes me want to read it again.
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Re: Risk Management

Thanks for the great replies, gentlemen! There are some good thoughts and ideas there. Just being more aware of creeping complacency has helped. Now the trick is to find a way to keep it always at bay.

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Re: Risk Management

Yea, and personally, I really think the safest thing I can do is fly.. I mean fly... a lot. I'm definitely not as safe when I'm not proficient. (At least that's my excuse to the wifey) ha ha...
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Re: Risk Management

great stuff, men. especially as we all prep to head to the frank and other parts. i especially like gumps ideas and coreys..grass strip pilot...i really believe u have to be a fair amount paranoid about the safety part. lets face it, some of the places we fly leave little margin for error, and smaller yet if the fire goes out! as in back-country snowmobiling, NEVER give up your altitude 'till you are ready and sure of the outcome. i've been in and out of the frank for lots and lots of years and have a ton of respect for it, and know full well the risks involved. remembering all the while that there isn't any one place or strip i HAVE to be at any given time. like corey said, it just does not feel right all the time, so respect that gut feeling when u get it, and live to fly another day and take care of your kids and etc...

lastly, do your bfr in the backcountry as a good refresher, works great for me as a refresher...that second set of more experienced eyes will do wonders for your flying in the steep and deep...
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Re: Risk Management

Coyote Ugly wrote:Yea, and personally, I really think the safest thing I can do is fly.. I mean fly... a lot. I'm definitely not as safe when I'm not proficient. (At least that's my excuse to the wifey) ha ha...


X2 - where to next and when do we leave? :D
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