GA seems to be having a rough couple of years. Between staged accidents, YouTubers, and even well-respected professional pilots, there seems to be a steep uptick in high-profile accidents.

Is there a shift happening or am I just taking more notice?

The internet has has a way of quickly bringing everything to you front door. If this was the days of radio and newspapers you would never hear about a plane crash 3 states away. The more sites you link to the more you will hear about. If a kid gets expelled from high school because of a shirt he wore the entire country has to hear about it through 18 different sources. You still only hear about 1/4 of the bent aircraft unless you are on the right pipeline.
DENNY

Check this page weekly: https://www.asias.faa.gov/apex/f?p=100:93:::NO:::

Think it’s more to do with how connected we are these days with smart phones and all that

Someone can ground loop a plane in KY, anyone can film it and upload it to here, Facebook, tock, etc and within a few hours we will be talking about it

It's not that the "more connected" world is exposing more accidents... it's that there ARE actually more accidents. All you have to do is talk to your insurance broker and look at the renewal quote.

The internet has given a bunch more idiots the inspiration to go out and put themselves out over their skis... and we are all paying the price.

Bigrenna wrote:It's not that the "more connected" world is exposing more accidents... it's that there ARE actually more accidents. All you have to do is talk to your insurance broker and look at the renewal quote.

The internet has given a bunch more idiots the inspiration to go out and put themselves out over their skis... and we are all paying the price.

So if one year there were zero accidents you think insurance rates would plummet?

Does anyone compute rates per operator hour like AOPA does but on sub-annual basis? More operator hours and big increases in hull values could also explain the appearance of more accidents and higher insurance premiums. Also airplane crashes are vivid and vivid drives engagement and engagement is money.

NineThreeKilo wrote:

Bigrenna wrote:It's not that the "more connected" world is exposing more accidents... it's that there ARE actually more accidents. All you have to do is talk to your insurance broker and look at the renewal quote.

The internet has given a bunch more idiots the inspiration to go out and put themselves out over their skis... and we are all paying the price.

So if one year there were zero accidents you think insurance rates would plummet?

Bigrenna is spot on, if accident rate dropped it stands to reason that insurance rates would follow. However hull values have increased significantly so this also factors into the equation I believe.

From aopa… I assume they are still tabulating 2023. They say the report is updated every 30 days. Doesn’t look like a dramatic uptick to me.

Insurance is up because the fleet doubled in value over Covid and the majority of GA pilots are older than the planes we’re flying.

Fatalities seem stable.

Bigrenna wrote:It's not that the "more connected" world is exposing more accidents... it's that there ARE actually more accidents. All you have to do is talk to your insurance broker and look at the renewal quote.

The internet has given a bunch more idiots the inspiration to go out and put themselves out over their skis... and we are all paying the price.

Spot on! Perfectly stated!

Kurt

https://www.wtwco.com/en-be/insights/20 ... ew-q3-2023

This had some interesting insights, including a 12 Billion dollar loss from Russia confiscating ~400 leased aircraft.

I'd also previously read about the Boeing MAX losses being passed on to consumers, and assume the affects still linger: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/boeing-fle ... -analysts/

For what it's worth, my auto insurance also increased 40%, quoted across multiple carriers, as part of a "reevaluation of insurance markets" in Washington State. Seems I'm not alone...
https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/commen ... _rate_for/

Insurance is just a product, like fish sticks or a rear axle off a Plymouth

They will charge the max that they believe the market will bear

Just like the axle or fish sticks insurance will have a sales pitch to try to justify the price for the product.

Normally their pitch is one of the three

Virtue: insurance means you’re “responsible”…yeah and Gillette is the best a man can get lol

Fear: “what’s if’s” galore

Blame: it’s not our fault our rates are sky high and don’t jive with reality, it’s that other guys fault who ground looped his RV4, blame him!!



How some people, who mostly dont even match my demographics crashing = my claim free professional pilot self paying more is just silly, it’s more like they just want more profit. Which I understand


Anyone have any numbers on the money aviation insurance has been taking in over the last decade?

SmokeyTheBear wrote:From aopa… I assume they are still tabulating 2023. They say the report is updated every 30 days. Doesn’t look like a dramatic uptick to me.

Insurance is up because the fleet doubled in value over Covid and the majority of GA pilots are older than the planes we’re flying.

Richard G. McSpadden Report Figure View - AOPA.jpeg.png

The safety record for fatal accidents in GA has dropped over the last 30 years. There is some variability year to year but as others have mentioned social media and the modern world have effected the way we receive information.

When I started flying GA was considered 8 times more deadly than driving an automobile. I believe that number is now reduced to 7. Mitigating risk and acknowledging that flying carries dangers is an important part of training and staying proficient. The higher insurance premiums seem to coincide with hull values more than anything. When I bought my 180 my Hull value was 100K. I now have it at 250K. Premium went from 2000/year to 4400 now. I do carry 250K for passengers although up until 4-5 years ago - I was able to carry a one million smooth policy. That is not possible now. We also have little competition in the aviation underwriting world creating a less competitive arena.

Dumb mistakes are accentuated now due to social media. Mike Patey's recent loss of 4 close friends hits close to home and was a check for me on my own flying habits and risk taking. I read crash talk on BT and never a shortage of accidents and fatalities on that subthread. I think the publicity of all the accidents is a net positive for GA. So much to learn de-constructing other's mistakes.



Josh

Dog is my Copilot wrote:When I started flying GA was considered 8 times more deadly than driving an automobile. I believe that number is now reduced to 7. Mitigating risk and acknowledging that flying carries dangers is an important part of training and staying proficient.

I thought flying was generally considered safer (per person per hour) than riding in a car? I may have that wrong.

For instance, the link below suggests:

According to research by Harvard University, flying in the US, Europe, and Australia is significantly safer than driving a car. Your odds of being in an accident during a flight is one in 1.2 million, and the chance of that being fatal is one in 11 million. Comparatively, your chances of dying in a car crash are over 200,000 times higher, averaging around one in 5,000.

Recognising the above does not necessarily account for the increased risk of GA compared to commercial air transport, or the risk exposure (i.e. we spend years of our lives in a car, most don't spend that long in aircraft).

https://simpleflying.com/how-safe-is-flying/#:~:text=Your%20odds%20of%20being%20in,averaging%20around%20one%20in%205%2C000.

I'm pretty sure that's specific to part 121 ops

I've been driving for 50 years, and have been in one car crash.
I've been flying for 28 years, and have been in one airplane crash.
So flying is twice as dangerous as driving.
This doesn't even take into account that I spend many more hours driving every year than flying.

What I have found odd is how much stuff they lump into “dangerous” GA

Basically outside of super safe sterilized 121, much of the rest of aviation is lumped together


On the rates side
The 60yr old PPL who has 2,000hrs….over 30 years, he’s paying almost the same to insure his Cessna as a young professional ATP/CFI pilot who’s doing 6mo recurrents and flying 40-90hrs a month, in weather

There is zero way those two pilots are even in the same planet risk wise



Same with shopping rates and getting a better deal, if I’ve been accident free and paying on time for years with one company how can I get a better deal with another company who has no relationship with me that I just happen to randomly get a free quote from?

Griping about insurance rates is a waste of time. It is what it is.
Either get a better deal elsewhere, go without, or grit your teeth & pay up.

hotrod180 wrote:Griping about insurance rates is a waste of time. It is what it is.
Either get a better deal elsewhere, go without, or grit your teeth & pay up.

Indeed

I go without, unless I feel I need to pass on some risk for their price