http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Sm ... 46421.html

Anybody have any more news???

Here is what the local press is saying. A bonanza with 5 on board was enroute from baker city OR to butte MT. They called salt lake city tower (that's what the reporter said) and reported engine trouble near johnson creek and asked for assistance to land at johnson creek. The plane dissapeaed from radar near johnson creek, it did not land at johnson creek , no ELT has been heard, the search has been suspended overnight. The webcamtat JCshowed low ceiling and snow flurries this afternoon. Basically no good news, but don't give up hope yet.

KMYL McCall time of loss of radar contact.
01 Dec 3:51 pm MST 39 36 89 S12 10.00 -RA OVC025
01 Dec 2:51 pm MST 38 34 85 SSE15 8.00 -RA FEW020 OVC027

Was he on a IFR flight plan? Was he on top? This is the stuff that gives me nightmares.

Overcast at 2500 would be bases at 7500-8000 higher mountains obscured for sure. I don't know what the tops were then. Looks like the clouds would have been full of ice too. Looks way ugly to me.

Hoping for a miracle

Agreed

OregonMaule wrote:KMYL McCall time of loss of radar contact.
01 Dec 3:51 pm MST 39 36 89 S12 10.00 -RA OVC025
01 Dec 2:51 pm MST 38 34 85 SSE15 8.00 -RA FEW020 OVC027

Was he on a IFR flight plan? Was he on top? This is the stuff that gives me nightmares.

Overcast at 2500 would be bases at 7500-8000 higher mountains obscured for sure. I don't know what the tops were then. Looks like the clouds would have been full of ice too. Looks way ugly to me.

Hoping for a miracle

Not looking favorable. There are not a lot of options in this country, descending through clouds and breaking out at 200 agl without an engine. Hoping for the best for all on board.

I read a report that said they were looking on the ridge just East of the strip based off of Cell Phone signals. Even if they survived the crash the conditions are brutal up there right now. I can't fathom flying across that neck of the woods in single engine plane in the weather.

Yuck...... Bad place to lose a motor and have to decend through the soup.....

Here is hoping they pulled off a miracle.. ..


Ps... I am amazed there are cell towers around there so they could get a "ping"..

I thought I was going to lose an engine over that country a couple months ago, there really is no place to put a plane down out there. It about made me quite flying; I can't imagine having that happen in poor weather.

I too am hoping for a miracle.

So, your flying along SE with the latest n greatest moving maps with all the possible bells n whistles above the clag n craigs.
You feel you have a "reasonable" chance if the (one n only) engine decides to withhold power.
Maybe so.
Now make it winter, too. Your metal airframe is now significantly below freezing at altitude when your power plant resigns. Your glide ratio gives no choice but to descend into the clouds. You line up with the ridges/valley and make it over the JC valley before descending into the cloud/moisture. The tops are likely supercooled moisture-if not most the way through.
When the significantly below freezing airframe metal meets the "heavy with moisture" clouds, the airframe starts icing rapidly and you know your stall speed is raising rapidly.
It becomes a race down to the airstrip before you are no longer in an airplane, but in an ice sculpture with the aerodynamics of an anvil.

Not a great survival scenario....

Wish all pilots would weigh that scenario before launching into such conditions. Especially with other souls aboard who are trusting our judgement as PIC.

I know all the old salts here pictured this with the conditions mentioned. This is verbalized for the noobs who think an IFR ticket and a fast airplane are a license to do "anything legal" in a high performance steed.

Dang lil cub I thought you were gonna end by saying and there out of the clouds appears JC in all her glory and your on a perfect final for 17. I've seen it done at night but never in the weather. Prayers for the family who must be miserable at this point playing the waiting game.

Amazon.com...Search Gifts for Wife...Sort by most popular...Usually get's me pretty close

Wish all pilots would weigh that scenario before launching into such conditions. Especially with other souls aboard who are trusting our judgement as PIC.

I know all the old salts here pictured this with the conditions mentioned.

It's all a game of odds, and what you're willing to bet.

I flew into Kalifornia over Turkey Day holiday. Going in/out of Cameron Park I'm looking down and thinking, "If this engine quits now, I am completely hosed." There was absolutely not one single spot I could see as I climbed out, that would have resulted in an un-dented airplane if I had to glide in. And at night, double hosed. Yet guys think that's safer than the mountains?

Personally, I'll take my chances in the mountains at night anytime over jam packed big city.

Gump

GumpAir wrote:

Wish all pilots would weigh that scenario before launching into such conditions. Especially with other souls aboard who are trusting our judgement as PIC.

I know all the old salts here pictured this with the conditions mentioned.

It's all a game of odds, and what you're willing to bet.

I flew into Kalifornia over Turkey Day holiday. Going in/out of Cameron Park I'm looking down and thinking, "If this engine quits now, I am completely hosed." There was absolutely not one single spot I could see as I climbed out, that would have resulted in an un-dented airplane if I had to glide in. And at night, double hosed. Yet guys think that's safer than the mountains?

Personally, I'll take my chances in the mountains at night anytime over jam packed big city.

Gump

x2

My Prayers for folks in the plane.
How many folks died in car wrecks from head on wrecks, but every day we go down the road a foot away from a 120 mph head on!!
Each of is responsible for our own risk assesment,
Don't start bitching about a guy flying a Top of the line Crosscountry aircraft that happened to have an engine problem over a cloud deck!!
As we all are perfect RIGHT!!

Personally, I'll take my chances in the mountains at night anytime over jam packed big city.

The residents of the city prefer that too, I expect.....

Don't start bitching about a guy flying a Top of the line Crosscountry aircraft that happened to have an engine problem over a cloud deck!!

I didn't intend to give anybody crap for their priorities/decisions.
I do think that "unintended consequences" should be considered/weighed.
Everybody has to decide for theselves-and unfortunately we frequently decide for others who have no concept.
My point was intended to be that these operations should not be taken blithely

Sorry if it came across wrong!

Littlecub wrote:

Don't start bitching about a guy flying a Top of the line Crosscountry aircraft that happened to have an engine problem over a cloud deck!!

I didn't intend to give anybody crap for their priorities/decisions.
I do think that "unintended consequences" should be considered/weighed.
Everybody has to decide for theselves-and unfortunately we frequently decide for others who have no concept.
My point was intended to be that these operations should not be taken blithely

Sorry if it came across wrong!

Littlecub, was not speaking of you or anyone else in particular, but this seems to happen every time there is an accident!!
Nothing wrong with speaking your mind and thoughts, That's what we get to do here in this country!! And of that I am extremely Grateful!
I also agree with your comments that just because it's legal you can do it, Has nothing to do with being legal or having the rating!!
Just seems like there are so many folks think that it is irresponsible to do anything if there happens to be a screw up along the way!!
We all are responsible for what WE do and who WE do it to!!
I just flew 2000 miles in a single over some of the most inhospitable terrain in North America, and I flew with my Bride and my dog.
As such I traveled in a much more conservative way than I would have by my self!!
But again for some I was very ignorant of the rules and the risk, BUT those were MY decisions and if we had perished I'm sure some one would be on here saying why oh why would anyone fly there in the winter over such an inhospitable terrain in a single!!
No one was in the shoes of the pilot!! So I would think that as compassionate people and pilots we could hold off giving some one who might have perished along with there loved ones, a bunch of SHIT before we even know if they have!!
Just my ramblings as someone who believes I am responsible for What I do!!
I'm sure there will be someone who claims if he was in a fully deiced twin and a turbine he would have been fine!! It's just that he was not!
Risk assessment!

Hey GT, you remind me of this guy.

^^^^^ ^^^^^
Well done DP.

GumpAir wrote:Personally, I'll take my chances in the mountains at night anytime over jam packed big city.
Gump

Agreed!

A few years back I flew on a Banner campaign for a friend that consisted of a four ship formation flight for three days per city. The cities were San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and San Diego.

Not only would a wreck in most of the particular locations result in bent metal and bodies, but most likely they would have ended up taking out a soccer mom van load of precious cargo (or similar) along the way as well.

All I can remember thinking during the few days was that I hope I don't make the five o'clock news

Rob wrote:

Rob,
L-19 in Supercub colors... Nice.