I'm sure that there are many readers here with enough years of aircraft ownership to remember how rising fuel prices in the past effected aircraft prices. I am curious to hear your take on the effects of rising fuel cost on aircraft prices, especially given the state of the economy and the decline of General Aviation.

Thanks in advance for sharing your experience, thoughts and comments.

Doc

Doc

I had a plane for sale last winter and had an offer of $48k (I passed). This year I cant get more than $37k for the same plane. Values are down, fuel is partly to blame. The sad thing is, I dont think we are at the bottom yet. If 100LL keeps going up its only going to get worse.

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Ethanol is selling for about $2.50 a gallon at the plants in the Midwest. That is an unsubsidized price and you can go about 70 or 75% as far on a gallon.

Fuel price is up, ability to get money is down, disposable income is down (eaten up by inflation due to printing money), and the list goes on as to why it is a complete buyers market. A guy with cash in his hand and wanting to buy is in the drivers seat. A friend in Canada just received a bulk 100LL delivery. Last year in April he paid $3.85, this year north of $6.00. Full semi load. Welcome back Carter!

Marty, seriously not picking a fight here, but using 70%, that means $3.57 at the plant for energy equivalent ethanol ($3.57 X 70% = $2.50), now I would assume that to ship the distributors (mark up) and sell at the pump (another markup), we got to be somewhere around $4.00 per gallon at the pump for enthanol in terms of energy equivalency to gasoline. That's assuming the distributor puts at least 20 cents a gallon on it, and the retailer puts 20cents a gallon on it. $3.57 +0.20 dist fee/gal + 0.20 retailer/gal = $3.97. I might be way off on the distributor per gallon fee, but I can't imagine they would ship a 1000 gallons from the plant to the retailer for less than a $200 fee? That's less than 50 gallons of diesel for the big truck to move it, and leaves nothing for the driver or any profit. I know the retailer markup is in the 20 cents area. Is my math wrong? Did the MT prop work for you? Russ

Russ, love the MT---very smooth compared to the 88 inch seaplane. I know the ethanol won't work for everybody but should if a plant is close by. The manager of the plant closest to me said if I got a legal fuel delivery truck, he would load it with a 1000 gallons----wouldn't mess with 55 gallon drums or a farmer tank on a trailer. Going to be more plants built all over as the trash to ethanol starts taking off more. Just read where the price of ethanol in Brazil figures out to $4.05 a gallon U.S. so I guess that is why one of the plants I'm in is exporting there.
Marty

Glad you like the MT, it sure is great on my plane. I'm sure at a certain oil price even unsubsidized ethanol gets competitive. Unfortunately we're probably heading to that oil price. Russ

I've been thinking about getting out, so I advertised my 206 in Alaska with what I think is a fair price. I have not gotten one single call in a month. It's not one an air taxi could use without major $$$$$ spent because the overhaul is 13 years old, plus it's an older one to start with. I'll just continue to fly is only when necessary, and keep it inside.

I don't see the asking prices coming down all that much, not sure if anything is moving though. It would be my guess that the ones that move aren't advertised, and the ones that are advertised are just hoping for a sucker. Still see lots of $100K supercubs for sale.

I think the economic instability has more to do with it than the fuel price...$2, $4, $6...it's all too much in my opinion.

gb

180Marty wrote:http://greenairportsdevelopment.com/id15.html
http://greenairportsdevelopment.com/index.html
Ethanol is selling for about $2.50 a gallon at the plants in the Midwest. That is an unsubsidized price and you can go about 70 or 75% as far on a gallon.

70 or 75%? Ha, that would be a neat trick!

According to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ethanol has 75,700 BTU per gallon, and gasoline has 115,000 BTU per gallon. That's 65.8% as much energy in ethanol as in gasoline.

Other sources have slightly different numbers. The best comparison I've found in favor of ethanol is on Wikipedia where they state that ethanol is 76,100 BTU per gallon, and gasoline is 114,100 BTU per gallon. That works out to 66.7% as much energy in ethanol as in gasoline.

Finally, in order to make full use of the energy in the ethanol, you have to use an engine that's optimized for it, which requires substantially higher compression than a normal gas engine.

Kevbert, You are right about ethanol and it needing high compression---12 or 13 to 1 ratio is where it probably works the best---try that with 87 octane. Evidently you haven't heard about GAMI injectors and running lean of peak. Anyway, ethanol burns cooler than gasoline by a couple hundred degrees so that means you can pull the mixture out a little further, reducing fuel flow, and still run at the same EGT. That would probably make up the few % you corrected me on for an unmodified engine.

I know this topic isn’t on Ethanol but I have flown my instrumented with data logger O-235 Long Eze on E-85 with very good results. The Lyc with intake flow divider in the oil sump can take great advantage of ethanol’s heat requirement to vaporize. With a standard air cooling system the oil temp and cyl temps run much cooler on ethanol allowing you to run higher power or reduce cooling drag. To take the greatest advantage of Ethanol fuel, increase compression ratio, advance timing, and reduce cooling drag. The Ethanol takes more heat from the air fuel charge than gasoline making it more dense like supercharging, recovering some of the losses for the lack of BTUs. After optimizing the above things (could have gone higher compression ratio) on my Experimental the mileage loss was less than 20% and achieved 15% consistently. Max power I made more power than on Av gas, 217mph closed course, 3200rpm, 15gph best power, oil and cyl temps remained in the green. AvGas would only get me to 207mph, 3000rpm, 11gph best power, temps could not be kept in the green. Ethanol has a lot of other technical difficulties to overcome to make it useable or optimize its use in our Type Certificated aircraft.

One more post then I going to work, I say go fly your plane more now it isnt going to get cheaper. By installing STC mods on my Cessna 206 and understanding how to take the best advantage of them I have achieved the ability to reduce the fuel cost per mile. My flight Monday to Michigan and back to Mo as example. Sportsman Stol, Wing X Stol, JPI with fuel flow, Gammied fuel injection, GPS with XM weather, Calculator and a E6B. Don’t forget balls to change alt, move the prop and mixture control knobs. Tail wind at altitude power back to 110kts true, 9gph. Low alt into the wind 135kts true, 12.5gph. I can screw everything fwd and burn 18gph but this aircraft isn’t optimized for that. The airplane was at 2900lbs - 3000lbs and I was landing at a private grass strip with no fuel so I tankard fuel for both ways and didn’t have to stop for gas saving time and fuel. I have spent a lot of time and money on mods that could have went to fuel, but I mostly use the aircraft commercially so I get the hours per year to justify the added cost of the mods.

***THREAD HIJACK***
IMHO

The aggravating part is there is no good reason for avgas, gas and diesel to cost this much. May as well throw natural gas and electricity in to. This is a political fight. The enviro whack-os are a big part of the problem.

Sue new drilling
Sue new refineries
Sue coal plants
Sue new pipelines
Sue nuke plants (Oregon lost our 1 and only. Rate payers charged to tear it down)
Oregon sued to stop a new LNG terminal
Oregon sued to stop a geothermal electrical project
Moratorium after the Deep Water Horizon

Force different methods on use that don't pencil
Oregon and Cali like 25% renewable energy by 2025 = 50% ride in cost
Wind power to expensive and ugly
Solar joke
Tearing out hydro electric dams

Thankfully carbon tax is dead for now. That effn rip off will be back too.

Do it for the children
Do it for the planet
Do it for the poor people

Well at the rate this country is going there is going to be a lot more poor people. I will be right there to rent them a house so I can fly.

We need Trump for President.

***HIJACK OVER*** we now return you to your regularly scheduled program.***

RobBurson wrote:The aggravating part is there is no good reason for avgas, gas and diesel to cost this much.

It's supply and demand. The U.S. corporations started offshoring everything they could to get dirt cheap labor, and that energized the economies of China and India, the two most populous countries in the world. Now they consume vast amounts of energy, both for industrial uses and also a small but growing percentage of their populations acquiring enough wealth to buy automobiles. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see their economic growth rates and also see that they are just getting started. Their demand for energy will continue to skyrocket, and that will place a huge and growing demand on world energy supplies. If you think prices are high now, you ain't seen nuthin yet!

Don't forget that WE as consumers DEMANDED cheap everything. We want $400 big screen TV's and $20 blue jeans, and we don't give a damn where they are made. Those prices couldn't be achieved on American wages and in a lot of cases under American regulations, so they have to go to slave labor countries with few regulations. And since we don't have tariff's to speak of anymore thanks to NAFTA and other such treaties wholeheartedly supported by both major parties, more made in USA products can't compete. Corporations are simply supplying a product demanded by the US consumer at a price the US consumer will pay. Anyone who wants to bitch about it can make the pledge only to buy made in America products, regardless of cost. See how much of that you can afford. One thing Trump has right is he believes China is our enemy and isn't playing fair.

Rob hit the nail right square on the head..... Kevbert iced the cake and .... Rhyppa brought up some valid facts,, except the unions have done far more damage then big corporations ever did... IMHO. YMMV.

180Marty wrote:Kevbert, You are right about ethanol and it needing high compression---12 or 13 to 1 ratio is where it probably works the best---try that with 87 octane. Evidently you haven't heard about GAMI injectors and running lean of peak. Anyway, ethanol burns cooler than gasoline by a couple hundred degrees so that means you can pull the mixture out a little further, reducing fuel flow, and still run at the same EGT. That would probably make up the few % you corrected me on for an unmodified engine.

That's an interesting idea that using ethanol could reduce cooling drag in airplanes. Good to know!

However, even if you can get the full 75% distance on ethanol that you can on gas, it's still a deal killer. Here's why:

Let's say I buy a 152, and my most important mission is to regularly visit my family that lives about 300 nm away. It's got the standard 26 gal tanks (24.5 usable), and with full fuel and my 195 lbs and my girlfriend's 145 lbs, that leaves 32 lbs for luggage, and we're at gross weight. The 350 nm range with the standard tanks at gross weight will easily get us there in one hop. I selected the 152 because it's the minimum plane that will meet my mission.

Now, we bolt on Max Schaum's ethanol voodoo STC (I'm not mocking him, I've followed his work for years and I salute his dedication and achievements). First, ethanol weighs about a half pound more per gallon than gasoline, so our 32 lbs of luggage is now reduced to 19 lbs. That's annoying, but I can live with it. But, the plane's range is now 75% of what it was on gas and now the one-hop has become a two-hop. Climbing to altitude uses much more fuel than in cruise, and so the fuel burn for the trip is higher. On top of that, because the hops are shorter, the cruising altitude will end up being less, which is less efficient, again yielding higher burn rates. And, finally, the added fuel stop takes a huge bite of time, and the whole reason I was flying in the first place was to save time. So, you end up with twice the money paid on fuel, longer trip times, and fewer options for choosing your routes due to the shorter range.

So, the solution to keep the capabilities that you have with gas is that you have to buy the next bigger plane so that you can carry enough fuel to make it in one hop. If your mission was just satisfied with a gasoline 152, you will need to upgrade to a 172 on ethanol. If you could get by with a gas 172, you will need a 182 on ethanol, and so on. Plus, when you upgrade to the bigger plane, it ends up burning more than the smaller plane. On top of that, each of those bigger planes costs from 50% to 100% more than the smaller model. To me, that is the true cost of converting to ethanol, and it is a huge price to pay.

Great post sir.... and that is assuming your fuel stop has Ethanol to sell you... if they don't,, your are stuck...

I’ve built Tri Hybrid (human, electric, gasoline) bicycles. 1 quart of gasoline has a lot of power and is very useful at most temps. I would park it outside my building at work and when I would come out there would be 3-4 engineers staring at it. I believe that the key to energy is to be smart, flexible, and quick to adapt to changes in availability / price or just make lots of money so it doesn’t matter. When the price of gas was under $1 a gallon I would drive around in my convertible with the top down and A/C on. Not today. If I invested heavy in big oil my story would be different.

I am still able to run gasoline in the Long Eze O-235. I just have to pull the mixture out to reduce fuel flow 20% and run a lower max power setting to maintain cyl and oil temps.