We've seen tail wheel values (most GA planes to be honest) double if not triple in the last five years. Do you all think that we will ever see the market settle back to earth some or has the bottom of the market been reset for good with 170's steadily bringing $70-100K and 180's consistently sitting north of $200K?

As someone who is starting to watch the market more seriously with the intention of buying hopefully within the next year, I have a hard time wrapping my head around these inflated values when the other costs of flying haven't increased alongside of plane values. We all know that wages haven't kept in step with inflation but that's only one part of the problem. Dropping $80-100K for a plane that books for far less and was selling for $35-40K just 5-6 years ago yet is now that much older and in need of more everything just doesn't add up.

I often hear of guys picking up 170B's for $50K or a 180 in the low $100's in internet lore but I never seem to come across those deals. I guess you've got to be kicking around at the right air strips and in tune with the local social network in order to get some old guys plane who has lost his medical via word of mouth!? Another issue I've noticed is the amount of 170B's currently for sale or lack thereof. I don't know if the market is currently cold, the time of year is bad (winter for most folks), maybe demand is way up on 170's creating shorter time on market, or if there just aren't many more to go around any longer, but it sure seems like there were a lot more of them for sale at any given time just a few short years ago.

I sure hope things level off in the coming year and the market somewhat self corrects similar to what we are seeing in the real estate market, but I have my doubts and sadly expect to have to drop $80K+ for a decent 170B. Let me know if I am off base here or if there's something more that I missing. And if anyone is aware of a B for sale or one that is coming to market in the not so distant future by all means reach out to me.

Consider the gov printed like 25% extra of the FIAT cash during the covid debacle, as did many other counties, so at best I’d say said plane/truck/widget is going to cost 25%ish percent more than it did before covid.

As for the market, PA18s, Skywagons, Beavers have been trending up and up since before covid

What’s all that mean, your guess is as good as mine

But I think shy of a major (real) global event, prices are not going to tumble back down much, let alone back to pre covid numbers

Look at some listings, in the last few months I have seen several 180's in the mid $100's asking price. I also think you'd have to go back further than 5 or 6 years to see decent planes at $35k to $40k, even if that is a 170.
I paid $78k for my 180 in 2017, that was the cheapest one around at the time, and it needed paint, a new tailwheel, fuel bladder, new exhaust, and some cleaning up. IIRC at the time a 180 with decent interior and paint was in the $120k range. Yes, prices are up, but to say 180's consistently go for over $200k is incorrect, I believe. Nice ones with good paint, good interior, recent panel, excellent maintenance, with lots of upgrades often do go for over $200k, but those are exceptional planes.

I think right now the market is a little soft, not much is moving it doesn't appear. I am optimistic that the plane market will start going up soon. Right now is probably a good time to buy.

Be wary of anyone who's convinced of which way the market is headed.

I know a guy who is a prominent aircraft broker, to paraphrase his words to me a few months ago he said "2024 is worse than 2008 in terms of volume." The aircraft market has been basically frozen, similar to other assets.

To me it seems like the excess and froth has been bleeding out of the economy piecemeal.

Now, I have a tin foil hat for every occasion, I have a special rack for them in my closet. I've been concerned about the markets for several years now, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hasn't happened yet, and it might not ever.

I bought my clapped out 182 for $35k in 2018. It was a decent airplane, but not a gem. I got a rare deal. I feel like the problem is that people brag about good deals, and those numbers start getting thrown around and the context gets lost. Most 182s were going for 75-80 at the time. But, it needed paint, the engine was tired, etc.

Fast forward to last year, and I bought my 206. Would I have like to have bought it at a better time in terms of price? Sure. But, it was the exact plane I wanted. I might look back and think "shoot, I could've waited a year and spent 10% less." But, timing the markets is a very tricky thing to pull off and I've found it's better to just buy when you find what you want rather than focusing on timing.

Supply of these older aircraft will never increase. Demand is the only variable that can bring price down.

CParker wrote:Supply of these older aircraft will never increase. Demand is the only variable that can bring price down.

True and if I am being totally honest with myself the right one hasn't come along just yet.

I think the bottom of the airplane market is going to continue to creep up. Every year there are less and less airworthy airplanes. Lots of the "cheaper" airframes are victims of rotting away on the ramp somewhere. The cost to bring those aircraft back can be prohibitive. Unless you are an A&P getting a good one is probably cheaper than trying to rescue one.

I got my 170B for 72k in march of 2022. I was pretty sure that I was buying at the peak of the market. That said, I could afford it (barely) and it was better than not flying.

In a few years you might be dead. Just buy the airplane.

CoaSTOL Cowboy wrote:.....I often hear of guys picking up 170B's for $50K or a 180 in the low $100's in internet lore but I never seem to come across those deals. I guess you've got to be kicking around at the right air strips and in tune with the local social network in order to get some old guys plane who has lost his medical via word of mouth!?.....

There's a pretty nice red 55 C180 at my airport that's been up on Barnstormers 4 times, so pretty much for 4 months.
Asking price is $125K, which to me seems pretty reasonable.
Some people have come to look at it, one guy even put a deposit on it, but it's still not sold.
I suspect the owner doesn't really want to sell it, and so is coming up with ways to kill the deal.
If that's the case, I dunno why he'd list it for sale, but there's no figuring out some folks.
But bottom line is that there are still some "affordable" airplanes out there.

Inventory seems lower than i've seen it in years. I casually browse BS daily and notice that a lot of stuff sits for a long time, which I interpret as the price is too high for the buyer's calculus to work out. Every buyer has their own tolerance for warts and stuff that might/should reduce resale value. When I see something sitting for months or a year or more, no matter how cool I think it is, I imagine myself trying to liquidate it to a market that didn't want it.

Currently market certainly isn't flush with good candidates. I think the best stuff is never listed, which why airplane buying is mostly a networking game.

Zzz wrote:Currently market certainly isn't flush with good candidates. I think the best stuff is never listed, which why airplane buying is mostly a networking game.

Yep, the best stuff - and the cheapest stuff.
There's a 170B at my airport that hasn't flown in near 20 years. It would need a very thorough going through at this point - all rubber etc and no telling if the engine has corrosion.
Problem is, he's had many offers over the years and still it sits. Sad to see but a common theme - untold thousands in hangar rent for an odd sort of attachment syndrome that becomes a corrosion data point.
2 of our airplanes were right place right time deals - our 180 we elbowed the previous owner for years that if he ever considered selling let us know and our R182 was hangar neighbor done with 4 seaters. Both liked us so we got good deals.
Good luck, keep an eye on all the usual sources and troll your local airports for candidates.
PS - it'd help if we knew what part of the country you're in - another part of the battle is being able to show up quickly with a mechanic for inspection and a checkbook so locale matters.

Zzz wrote:Inventory seems lower than i've seen it in years. I casually browse BS daily and notice that a lot of stuff sits for a long time, which I interpret as the price is too high for the buyer's calculus to work out. Every buyer has their own tolerance for warts and stuff that might/should reduce resale value. When I see something sitting for months or a year or more, no matter how cool I think it is, I imagine myself trying to liquidate it to a market that didn't want it.

Currently market certainly isn't flush with good candidates. I think the best stuff is never listed, which why airplane buying is mostly a networking game.

Agreed, networking (at least locally) is something I don't have access to, at least not currently. The airport I have been doing my flying out of is 1.5 hours from the house and it's not an old enthusiast mom and pop type field with a social pilot scene. Couple that with the fact that there aren't a lot of older Cessna 170/180's in this part of the country (Houston, TX) and I am left solely scouring the online resources like most which dilutes my market availability. I have listed a WTB/ISO in the marketplace here, hopefully that generates some leads in the coming months.

You might be surprised at how many of those airplanes are in your neighborhood. Look at a sectional, and go visit some of the uncontrolled fields around you. Try to visit with someone at each, and understand that sometimes you're going to run into the wrong person for your purposes, so if you get negative, try again.

Or, pay someone to "find" the right plane for you.

MTV

This my opinion only....As has been mentioned, they aren't making most of the aircraft that the majority of the posters on here can afford. Attrition from damage or just getting to worn out that it's not feasible to rebuild. There's a few out there that have been rebuilt and then listed for sale. The owners are way upside down in what the airplane will eventually sell for. If they keep it and fly it for a few years, the sting isn't bad since they got use of it.

Now for my theory, I'm thinking that once the MOSAIC is made into law, the prices will again take a surge higher. Lots of older (I'm one) pilots/wanna be pilots will be able to fly a wider variety of aircraft without having to worry as much about medical issues under Basic Med/Sport pilot. Many of these guys have been trying to keep their flying dream alive under LSA. Most LSA planes have little to no UL I believe the market price for 4-seaters will get even higher, when these pilots are able to get a more useful aircraft that can actually haul something, Just a guess, but that's my thinking. Look what happened to the price of Cubs and Champs when light sport was implemented!

Waiting for a cheaper airplane is like delaying having children. It never makes sense financially you just miss out on the best stuff for more years. The return on investment in memories, family time, and making aviation buddies is so much more than a bigger house, new car, new spouse. Go buy a rotten(all of them) plane and love it warts and all.

frstnflt wrote:Waiting for a cheaper airplane is like delaying having children. It never makes sense financially you just miss out on the best stuff for more years. The return on investment in memories, family time, and making aviation buddies is so much more than a bigger house, new car, new spouse. Go buy a rotten(all of them) plane and love it warts and all.

I agree with this ^^^^^ statement wholeheartedly. Time is the only commodity that matters. I do not know your budget or finances. Find an airplane that fits with your budget. The 180/182/185 market has high demand and nice ones will fetch good prices. Lots of planes that appear to be deals may need a lot of TLC and huge $$$. I would look into some planes that are undervalued compared with the Skywagon/170/182 market if I were on a budget. Here is my short list:

C175 - Especially with an O360 or 470.
Stinson 108s
Piper Pacers

Planes will continue to go up in value due to the supply demands. Don't let time slip away looking to find a good deal. The purchase price is just the start of a lot of money being spent on fueling the crackhead aviator within.



Josh

Stinson108-2/-3 have always been in my top three list as well. Not sure about a rag wing/fuselage or the Franklin but they certainly have the looks. It appears you can find them in the $40-60K range pretty consistently.

Interesting feeling “price go up forever” mentality one feels when living in it. Things are already soft. This is a precursor for what’s to come. The momentum behind the latest wave is over, unless the fed makes poor choices in the coming months then the cost of aircraft will be the least of your inflationary worries.

I sold a nice ‘55 170B in 2023 for $55k. Timed out engine but strong. It needed some paint (which I included matching materials) after a ground loop repair (I bought it damaged and did the repairs). Beautiful interior and nice avionics.

Be patient. Have your cash ready for when the “I gotta sell it now” shows up. They always do.

How about experimental? Much better choices out there than the 170.

Watch Barnstormer multiple times a day. The great deals are sold in minutes after posting.

frstnflt wrote:Waiting for a cheaper airplane is like delaying having children. It never makes sense financially you just miss out on the best stuff for more years. The return on investment in memories, family time, and making aviation buddies is so much more than a bigger house, new car, new spouse. Go buy a rotten(all of them) plane and love it warts and all.

Truer words… I have been on the wrong side of this for way too long.

mtv wrote: You might be surprised at how many of those airplanes are in your neighborhood. Look at a sectional, and go visit some of the uncontrolled fields around you. Try to visit with someone at each.....

This.
You should take a look at the FAA registration database, they have a "state/county" search feature.

https://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/

You might be surprised by how many airplanes (including your targeted models) are near you.
You might particularly look for airplanes which have been registered for a long long time,
sometimes that means an aging-out owner who might be interested in (or coerced into) selling.

hotrod180 wrote:

mtv wrote: You might be surprised at how many of those airplanes are in your neighborhood. Look at a sectional, and go visit some of the uncontrolled fields around you. Try to visit with someone at each.....

This.
You should take a look at the FAA registration database, they have a "state/county" search feature.

https://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/

You might be surprised by how many airplanes (including your targeted models) are near you.
You might particularly look for airplanes which have been registered for a long long time,
sometimes that means an aging-out owner who might be interested in (or coerced into) selling.

Fantastic idea!

Dog is my Copilot wrote:

frstnflt wrote:Waiting for a cheaper airplane is like delaying having children. It never makes sense financially you just miss out on the best stuff for more years. The return on investment in memories, family time, and making aviation buddies is so much more than a bigger house, new car, new spouse. Go buy a rotten(all of them) plane and love it warts and all.

Along these lines of fretting over prices - I copied this bit of wisdom below from an older guy on a Beechcraft site a few years ago who was addressing this same subject:

Time is finite. It is limited. It passes you by. Once you lose it, you can never gain it back

Is there a higher cost known to man than letting life pass you by?

I would argue no. There are good decisions. There are bad decisions. But when it comes down to how you want to spend your life, indecision is the most expensive of all.

When its all said and done, you will regret the things you did not do far more than the things you did.

Some day you will run out of Somedays.