Had a flight a couple weeks back that was an above average workout. I was headed to town for work, and my son was along because he was going to visit some of his friends and get a little summer break from village life. But on Friday evening, the first time we could have had a go at it, the wind was picking up something fierce. Around King Salmon, that can be a little uncomfortable. But around Iliamna and Port Alsworth, it usually suggests winds in Lake Clark Pass that are staggeringly abusive to a little plane. Having staggered through some of that abuse in the past, I wasn't really looking forward to it this time, so I told Cedric we probably should wait unless he wanted to get beat up pretty bad.
"No, that's okay Dad. I want to get to Anchorage to visit Colton, but we don't have to go tonight."
"That's probably good, as the forecast is for winds in Turnagain arm to hit 50 and above, which makes for terrible winds on the west side of Cook Inlet as well. If we leave right now, we'll get beat up bad in the pass, then beat up bad along Cook Inlet. But the wind is supposed to diminish tomorrow in the afternoon, so we could go tomorrow and get there in the evening."
That sounded like a plan, anyway, so we slept on it. In the morning, we got up and the wind was still howling, as forecast. But as mid-day arrived and the forecast was updated, the time of the diminishing winds in the forecast was pushed back...and back...
"Uh oh, Cedric. It looks like the winds tonight are pretty bad still after all. And they are likely going to stay that way all the way until tomorrow morning now. It isn't so windy that it is unsafe, but it would certainly be uncomfortable. The problem is that tomorrow is the last day before I have to be at work, and although the winds will be dropping, there may be some areas of low ceilings tomorrow, so the down side is that I may need to give up on the flight and fly commercial, in which case you will miss the trip."
"That's okay Dad. I mean, I want to go and all, but I definitely would rather not go when the winds are going to make me sick."
I called to visit with a friend about the weather...
"Why don't you call and check with the commercial airline to see whether they have seats available? That way, if they have only one seat anytime tomorrow, you know you better grab it. But if they have lots of seats, you could wait and see what the weather offers you when you get up in the morning."
Wow, that is some good thinking, right there.
So I called the airline and they had lots of seats on every flight the next day. Perfect.
Sunday dawned foggy and cloudy, but by noon it had lifted enough to be obviously improving. The weathercams for Lake Clark Pass were not as helpful as they could be, because the most important one of all was down for maintenance, so there wasn't a whole lot to go on there other than the weatherman's forecast.
But it really did look like we should be able to get to town, so I decided to go ahead and launch. Cedric and I crawled in the Island Girl and fired her up, then took off into 700 scattered, overcast 1200. I didn't bother to climb above the 700 layer because at Igiugig they were reporting a 500 foot ceiling, so I figured I may as well not kid myself about going above anything until I got to Iliamna, where they were reporting a ceiling of 5000 feet.

As we flew along, hanging below a low ceiling but with silky smooth air and decent visibility, we found ourselves peeking over the Iliamna terminal moraine with a ceiling at 500 msl, which put it pretty low...something like 300 feet...but then as the ground dropped away we were noticing that the clouds seemed low too. I have long preferred visibility to ceiling, but I like having at least a little air beneath me. We crossed the Kvichak River at 350 feet, and we still had good visibility, but it didn't look entirely convincing ahead...as in it didn't look like we'd be able to continue to see...and Igiugig was reporting 300 feet and 3 miles. Hmm...

As we neared the northwest corner of Lake Iliamna, the visibility had deteriorated along the direction we wanted to travel to the point where I was looking at visibility near 2 miles.

I'm not very fond of that, unless I have reason to believe that it will get better soon, but I could see the lake shore, and that would at least give me a good visual reference as I tried to evaluate the flight path.
"Cedric, I don't like the visibility here."
"I don't like it either, Dad!"
"When we get up to the lake shore, we are going to look to see whether we still have the visibility we need looking along the lake shore. If not, we will just turn and go land at Igiugig to wait for the weather to improve."
"That sounds good."
As we neared the lake shore, it was impossible to be sure what the visibility was over the lake, a totally featureless mass of steely-gray blue fading into the featureless white cloud that seeped down to meet it. But we had a really good view down the lake toward Igiugig, back to our right. To our left...well...
"Okay, I can't see very well to the left here, it looks like I can only see about a mile up the lake shore. I don't mind flying a mile or two in those conditions, but if it doesn't improve quickly, we'll turn around and head for Igiugig."
"Okay, Dad."
In the end, it was totally academic. As we turned to the left, I noted the place along the lake shore where the visibility faded into oblivion. Usually when you fly in poor visibility, that spot moves away from you as you fly toward it. But in this case, it didn't move, and we were clearly approaching a wall of no visibility.
"I don't like the looks of that at all...we're going to Igiugig!"
I turned inland, over the trees, to make a 180 degree turn and head back down the lake shore. It helps to maintain a really solid visual reference, and the lake fading up into clouds fading down was not that reference, so I turned the other way. Now, flying toward Igiugig, I couldn't help but wonder how officially reported 300 and 3 weather would compare to what we had just flown through. I dialed up the Igiugig weather frequency...
"Eye-Gwee-Gig Airport...automated weather observation..." The computerized guy just can't, despite all his electrons, pronounce ih-gee-ah-gig, it makes me chuckle very time.
He claimed it was 500 and 5, which sounded pretty luxurious, but as we approached Igiugig along shore it was clear he wasn't fibbing.
"Cedric, the weather down here is pretty good, and since I already looked at the Kokhanok weathercams and they were good too, instead of stopping at Igiugig we'll just head along the south shore of Iliamna and see if we can get across Bruin Bay."
"That sounds good."
As we passed Igiugig, it was clear that the weather really was getting better along the way, and soon we had a lovely view of the Kvichak River, draining the largest lake in Alaska, and Igiugig nestled along the banks.

Visibility was still occasionally impeded now by showers, but for the most part as we headed east along the south shore of the lake it was pretty outstanding.

Before we had even arrived at Big Mountain, we could see all the way across the lake.
"Cedric, look at that, can you see that?"
"What?"
"Over there, across the lake, what do you see?"
"Is it...land?"
"Yes! The other lakeshore! Too bad I'm allergic to water, or we could just fly across the lake!"
By the time we passed Kokhanok, it had become so good that it was hard to imagine what the other end of the lake had looked like.

I kept looking across the lake, and thinking about it, but I had Bruin Bay on the mind now, so I headed down toward the pass. I'm not very fond of Bruin Bay. I try to scope out new country during really nice weather before I make a decision about what sort of bad weather I will tolerate. Class G weather minimums are so low that you can legally fly yourself into a corner you can't get out of if you don't plan ahead and manage your exposure. I do that by limiting my tolerance for anything less than 3 mile visibility to short stretches of familiar, flat terrain. On the charts, Bruin Bay looks good because it is the lowest pass that gets you across the mountains toward Anchorage. But when I flew it at 3,000 feet a couple years ago for the first time, it looked like if you were pinned down below a cloud layer it would stick you out over water, cliffed out from having any terrain for an emergency landing.
And I'm allergic to water.
As we neared the pass over to Bruin Bay, there was a tongue of cloud sneaking over from the Cook Inlet side, but it had a nice ceiling underneath it, so I ducked underneath it for a look. But as we crossed over the pass, looking generally down, I couldn't see the water ahead of me, and I was going to be descending...and looking...and descending...
"Cedric, I don't like it, we're turning around."
We zipped right back out of there back into the fabulous weather we had just left, and it was decision time.
"Well, we may as well just go to Port Alsworth. We made it through all the ugly stuff, so let's go there, land, fuel up, and see what reports we get on Lake Clark Pass."
On the way to Iliamna, we climbed up to get some terrain clearance, then kept climbing so we could cross over Flat Island and Knutson Bay with glide distance to land the entire way. Because...you guessed it...I'm allergic to water.
From there, I was looking at terrain I hadn't ever really flown before, so we headed up toward Tazimina Lake. But before we got there we crossed a canyon that was pretty impressive...


Peered at the sectional...and laughed. The creek is named Canyon Creek. Should have seen that one coming.
As we continued on, reveling in the smooth air, the high ceiling, and the gentle winds, we passed between upper and lower Tazimina Lakes, and headed into the pass that would drop us down right above Port Alsworth.

From there, we headed for midfield on the Wilder/Natwick runway to evaluate the wind sock. The breeze was favoring 5R, so we entered right downwind and announced our position. A reply came immediately.
"Port Alsworth traffic, Skylane northeast, straight in for 23L."
Hmm...
"Tri-Pacer on downwind for 5 right, I can do a 360 for spacing if you need me to."
"No, we haven't made it to the camel humps yet, we're about 10 out."
Okay, never mind...so we landed and taxied to the fuel pump. Our meandering track was preserved nicely by our spot page.

I filled the right tank and went to pay. When I came back, the guy that usually is helping out at the fuel area and around the shop was shaking his head.
"The news is not so good. That 206 went all the way through the pass then ran into weather behind Big River Lakes. They turned around and came all the way back through the pass."
"That doesn't sound so good..."
"No..."
Hmm...
"Dad, what's going on?"
"Well, I really don't know yet. That plane just went all the way through Lake Clark Pass and found some bad weather on the other side and had to turn around and come all the way back here. So we better have a look before we take off. What a mess it would be now if I can't make it to work on time. But that's my own fault, so we'll just see what it looks like and if there is a way to get there. But first I'm going to look at the other webcams."
I pulled out my phone (how did we manage without these things, anyway?) and pulled up the FAA weathercams. This time I looked at Merrill Pass, then at Ptarmigan Pass. Merrill looked pretty good, and when I went to the Alaska Volcano Observatory webcam for the Spurr hut that is at the eastern entrance to Merrill, that looked fairly okay as well. Hmm...
"Cedric, we're going to fill the other tank, pay for the gas, then probably head up to look at Merrill Pass."
While I was fueling, one of the folks that had deplaned from the 206 came over.
"Were you guys hoping to get through Lake Clark Pass?"
"Well, that was our intention, but it sounded like it was a bit of a problem?"
"Yeah, we made it all the way through there and then, after we exited the Narrows, there was a wall of clouds there."
"Wow, that makes it sort of tough."
"Yeah, it looked like it went down to maybe below 500 feet. The pilot looked at it, then said it was below his minimums, and turned around. There's a lot of moisture pushing through from Cook Inlet. It is even getting worse over here. Were going to wait here for a Casa that is coming in a few minutes, and launch out of here on that."
My wheels were starting to turn. The clouds went down to 500 feet? Over Big River? Certainly that is not good weather. But it would have been a lot more informative if he had dropped down low enough to look underneath, the visibility is the real critical item in that situation...
"Well, we're thinking we might head up north and look at Merrill Pass, or even Ptarmigan if the western entrance to Merrill is not looking good."
"Oh, up north, well we just came down through that, and it isn't very good up there either, at least by Sparrevohn. We started way out west, tried to fly in to Anchorage yesterday and just got hammered, had to sit down and spend a night in one of the villages. Then today on the way here from up north of here, we occasionally had to descend to 1000 feet just to maintain ceiling."
Okay, at that point I decided I really needed to talk to the pilot. While I really appreciated the passenger sharing all this, I wasn't sure the numbers he was passing on were accurate. I certainly knew that before I started training, I couldn't have been relied on to give accurate condition reports based on what I was seeing as a passenger. He might have been more reliable than me, so I was going to give him the benefit of the doubt, but thought it would help to verify with the pilot.
But it was not to be. The pilot came past while in conversation with another gentleman, making a comment along the lines of, "and the good part is, I'm still alive!"...then hopped in a pickup that had the bags and gear from the plane loaded into it, and headed down the runway to meet the plane they were going to ride out on.
Hmm...
I've never had a strong desire to be one of those accident statistics where people fly off into the terrible weather they are warned again, and are then found the following day by a search party looking for them when the weather is nice. And not necessarily found living, either. But the report I had heard sounded like flyable weather. Not ideal. But depending what the visibility underneath was, perhaps not even bad.
While I was standing there, my friend Dan pulled up.
"Hey, you going somewhere?"
I filled him in on the situation.
"You want to come over to my house and look things over on a decent monitor instead of your little phone?"
"You know, that actually sounds like a really good idea. Give me a minute to get my plane parked out of the way."
We went over to Dan's house and took a little time to examine all the weather information we could find. Merrill was still bad up top, but the tendrils of clouds around the AVO cam near the east entrance were thickening, and looking like something serious. If I am going to fly all the way through a pass and have to fly back, I'd rather fly through Lake Clark Pass. I started looking around at the AVO cams more closely.
One of the Redoubt cameras caught my eye. It was located on an oil platform, and had been turned toward Redoubt after initially being pointed toward Spurr. It had a good field of view that included the outflow of Big River where it came out of Lake Clark Pass.
"Look at that!"
"What do you see?"
"Right here, see that? Right where the coast is, a definite ceiling, easily identified from however many miles away this camera is. So there is a good cloud deck, just like they said, but it really does look like it has a nice bottom that is at least 500 feet up, and there is visibility beneath!"
"Sure enough!"
"So, Dad, what does that mean, anyway?" Cedric was looking over our shoulders.
"Well, it means you and I are going to fly through Lake Clark Pass, because right now it looks like it should work fine."
We went back to the plane, and Cedric sat down in the grass while I looked things over.

"I know we've only been gone a short while, but when I let the airplane out of my sight I want to make sure nobody has decided to try to kill me while I've been gone, so I'm going to do a complete preflight again. And I am also going to do it because I've never taken off when somebody else has just told me it isn't safe. I want to make sure I'm careful here. But the report we got sounded like conditions we can fly in safely, and the cameras suggested the same thing. But I want to make sure I am proceeding methodically and not rushing anything."
"Yeah, so weird, it's like he doesn't know what he's doing to turn around when it is like that, huh?"
"Whoah there...not so at all!" I could see this would need to be discussed. How to go about it?
"One of the most important things a pilot has to do is set his minimums and abide by them. You change your minimums when you know for a fact you can operate safely with different minimums. Not when your minimums are inconvenient. I have no idea why his minimums are what they are. But I can tell you that when I got my license, I wouldn't fly through if I thought we were going to come out with a 500 foot ceiling. That would have been a no-go for me. But since then, I have become very familiar with the pass, and with our airplane. I know for a fact that I can turn around with a 500 foot ceiling anywhere in the pass, including the narrows, and do it completely safely. I didn't necessarily know that, and I might not have been as ready to slow down to help make maneuvers like that when I had flown less. I have no idea what that pilot's experience is, but don't ever think it is a bad thing for a pilot to abide by his minimums."
"But if he really flew his airplane a lot he'd get better at it?"
"It isn't even about whether he is good at flying. He might be up here from the lower 48 and used to flying instruments. He might just not want to fly low level. He could have thousands of hours, I really don't know. But it is really important that you start to understand that minimums are a life saving tool every pilot needs to keep in his pocket. My minimums in Lake Clark Pass are a bit different though. I need 300 feet, though I prefer a lot more, and 3 miles visibility. If I am flying out of the pass on the Cook Inlet side, and get out of the narrows, 2 miles is okay, but if it gets down to less than that I would turn around and come back as well. But if you are interested in being a pilot, you need to learn to make informed judgments about the weather and you need to do it without other people hassling you into flying when you can't do it safely. And as part of that, you need to make sure you don't pressure somebody else into feeling like they are being wimpy for not flying when they don't feel safe about it. And we might get through there and find that the weather is below my minimums. Or we may get through there and find that the situation has changed completely and the weather is great."
"Okay, so I have to learn how to set minimums too."
"Eventually, yes."
Somewhere during this long conversation the preflight had been finished, the airplane started, and we had launched off toward the pass. We went past the apparently extinguished (again) Currant Creek fire.

The lake was beautifully calm before us as we headed uplake.

Occasionally in the pass I would see a restriction of visibility ahead and think maybe it was going to be a problem...

But it would quickly become apparent that it was just a little spot of rain we would be flying through.

And then the visibility would be great on the other side.

Fireweed season was in full swing along the pass.

Somewhere in there I caught one side of a conversation between two airplanes.
"I completely understand what he was saying, but based on what I heard, I wouldn't have made the same call, but I certainly can relate to where he was coming from."
A short time later, the same voice announced, "Lake Clark Pass traffic, Navajo westbound at Summit Lake."
"Lake Clark Pass traffic, Tri-Pacer eastbound abeam the glacier fork. What does the east end look like?"
"It's not bad, there is a ceiling that is 600 feet or better, and visibility is good."
"Very good, thank you."
We turned into the Narrows and had a view of the lower ceiling ahead, but it really did look good underneath, so we descended to stay below and headed out of the pass.

As we turned out of the narrows below the clouds, the visibility ahead was clearly much better than it had been when we were looking at the cameras.

As we finished turning the corner, we could see Moose Ridge more than 10 miles in the distance.

From that point on, the rest of the flight was pretty straightforward. Good flying in good weather.

Plenty of practice thinking. Plenty of practice turning around. What would I do different?
Well, for starters, I don't really know that there was any point turning north along the Iliamna Lakeshore. I should have just turned toward Igiugig when I saw how foul it looked off to my left. Secondly, I should have abandoned Bruin Bay as an alternative without sticking my nose in there. I maintained good visibility and clearance, but the way that cloud was snaking through the pass, that couldn't have really suggested anything good under there. But I was pleased that in both cases I didn't hesitate to turn around. I always appreciate being with a pilot that is willing to turn around. I want to be one of those guys. On this trip, I was one of those guys twice.